New Zealand v Australia Third T20 tips: Twin 7/2 strikes the smart play

• Series could be tied 1-1 after washout

• No rain forecast this time
• Kiws strengthen bowling unit

• Keep faith with Seifert and Duffy

New Zealand v Australia
Saturday 4 October, 07:15
TV: Live on TNT

New Zealand v Australia Third T20 team news

New Zealand made changes to their XI for game two after a convincing defeat in the first match. They dropped Bevon Jacobs and Zach Foulkes for Jimmy Neesham and Ben Sears. Even though only 13 balls were possible on Friday it gave them a much better balance.

The Kiwis had realised they were vulnerable with the ball in terms of fallback options. Sears bolstered what they already had with Neesham a possible sixth bowler if desperate. They had also brought in Ish Sodhi for Kylke Jamieson to add variation. 

Concerns remain about their power with the bat in the absence of Finn Allen and Glenn Phillips. Devon Conway and Daryll Mitchell might be a little too ponderous for the modern-day format. 

Possible New Zealand XI: Seifert, Conway, Robinson, Chapman, Mitchell, Bracewell, Neesham, Sodhi, Sears, Henry, Duffy

Australia brought Sean Abbott into their line-up for the washout in place of Ben Dwarshuis, who apparently needed a rest. Presumably Josh Hazlewood may need to put his feet up for this one after the toil of mental preparation for a 13-ball game. 

The fact Australia will want to win the three-match series instead of risking a draw may mean that the time for experimentation is not now, however. Matt Kuhnemann, the SLA, may have to run drinks.

Possible Australia XI: Head, Marsh, Short, David, Stoinis, Owen, Carey, Dwarshuis, Bartlett, Zampa, Hazlewood

New Zealand v Australia Third T20 pitch report

The question is whether the heavy rain in Mount Manganui has impacted the surface for game three. Runs were to be expected if all was fair. The good news is that the forecast is pretty good with no rain expected.

Both teams to score 200 was considered as an option for the second match but that bet had been boosted by Sportsbook to 15/28.50. The 9/25.50 for this one has considerably less appeal. Keep an eye on the Sportsbook page as they may add specials and boosts closer to the off. 

The toss bias at the Bay Oval should be reiterated. In the previous 30 domestic matches 67% of games had been won by the chaser. 

New Zealand v Australia third T20 match prediction

Australia at 1.4740/85 are the shortest they have been so far in the series. New Zealand are 2.9215/8. If we're right about the pitch holding up well for batters (and that chase bias, too), we would expect the side batting first to be skinnier at the break.

That could be all the edge we need. For a simple trade, one hopes it is the hosts who get first use. Otherwise it is not hard to see them drifting up in the 4.003/1 region with this aggressive Australia batting attack posting something over 200. Backing the Kiwis and then laying them in a choice affair (around 1.9110/11 for 50% extra on the original stake will be all green)

As stated previously, we are not adverse to betting Australia in chasing something similar at inflated odds. But that was when New Zealand ran the risk of going with a weaker bowling group. This lot look a lot tighter and there are varied options. it is one to revisit in-play.

New Zealand v Australia third T20 player bets

For game two we had faith in Tim Seifert and Jacob Duffy delivering. There's no reason to change our mind. One failure for Seifert in the series has clipped his 50% win rate but the 7/24.50 remains value. Duffy got the one wicket to fall on Friday on a voided market. Having been 3/14.00 it is strange to see him pushed out to 7/24.50 with Foulkes a very surprising favourite. Matt Henry is the same price. Duffy is our win-rate option but equally a case could be made for Henry because he is top class. 

Now watch the latest episode of Stick To Cricket with special guest Rob Key