Australia v Pakistan Third ODI tips: Aussies face rare series reverse

Australia v Pakistan
Sunday 10 November 03:30
TV: live on TNT Sports

Australia v Pakistan Third ODI team news

It's rare Australia can be accused of chopping it off but they are guilty of disrespecting their opponents. They were lucky to get away with a batting collapse in game one and then suffered another in Adelaide which tied the series at 1-1.

Throw in their decision to rest Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc, Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne and they are in danger of a rare home series defeat. Josh Inglis will lead, Marcus Stoinis may come in while Sean Abbott will be attack leader with Spencer Johnson and Lance Morris adding zip.

The batting looks likely to be held together with all-rounders as Inglis moves up to No 3. Cooper Connolly should bat at No 8.

Possible Australia XI: Short, McGurk, Inglis, Maxwell, Stoinis, Hardie, Connolly, Abbott, Johnson, Zamp, Morris

Pakistan should be unchanged as they go in for the kill. That means they are likely to resist the temptation to pick a frontline spinner Success would earn them their second two-team series win in Australia.

Haris Rauf, with eight wickets in two games, has made the difference. Whether he can go to the well again remains to be seen but it is far from a bad thing that he has a new-look order to attack.

Probable Pakistan XI: Ayub, Shafique, Babar, Rizwan, Ghulam, Salman, Irfan, Naseem Shaheen, Rauf, Hasnain

Australia v Pakistan Third ODI pitch report

The Perth Stadium surface has been reliable for batting in T20. Comparisons with the old WACA should be forgotten about. "More of a batter's wicket," the groundsman has said. "Lots of runs." We won't go mad, though as two ODIS have produced low-scoring contests. The gamble will be to back either team to buck a trend, too. One suspects there might be a touch of value on the hosts to score well batting first but it is all down to a par line. Something around the 280s on overs may be a play.

Australia v Pakistan Third ODI match prediction

Australia are 1.511/2 with Pakistan 2.942/1. The Aussies have drifted slightly because of the team news but they still rate as poor value. It is a reserve team. Do we want to be backing a second-string at such skinny odds?

Of course not. The problem with Pakistan is that just when you think they can be relied upon they chuck in a stinker. No-one would be surprised if all form and wisdom went out the window and they were blown away by the pace and bounce of Johnson and Morris.

If the golden rule of betting is 'stick to what you know' then this match odds market can be deciphered only as being too favourable to the Aussies.

Australia v Pakistan Third ODI T20 player bets

It looks as though Saim Ayub is Pakistan's fifth bowler after he got through three overs of spin in Adelaide. He could get through more work here on a better batting wicket so the 9/110.00 about him being top Pakistan bowler does look toppy. An outright win looks beyond him but on a dead heat he could take it with least runs conceded. Adam Zampa has been a go-to option for top Aussie bowler with a win rate at 46% over two years. With the big hitters missing the 3/14.00 is not a mug option for back-to-back successes.

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