Australia v Pakistan Second ODI Tips: Zampa to take down Pakistan

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Australia v Pakistan
Friday 8 November 03:30
TV: live on TNT Sports

Australia v Pakistan Second ODI team news

Australia made hard work of going 1-0 up at the MCG following a dominant bowling performance. They were cruising at 113 for two going after 204. But a collapse meant they got home by only two wickets with Pat Cummins required to do another skipper's rescue job.

There will be changes to the XI. Josh Hazlewood is available and is expected to play before resting for the final ODI. Sean Abbott or Aaron Hardie could make way.

Cummins, Mitchell Starc, Steve Smith and Marnus Labuschagne will not play in game three either. Xavie Bartlett, Spencer Johnson and Josh Philippe have been added to the squad for that game.

Possible Australia XI: Short, McGurk, Smith, Labuschagne, Inglis, Maxwell, Hardie, Cummins, Starc, Hazlewood, Zampa

Pakistan may include Naseem Shah who was hobbling in the outfield and seen with the physio at the MCG. It is understood that cramp was the issue so rest should see him right.

They may need to consider playing a speicalist spin bowler, though. It was largely unnoticed from game one that they used only four bowlers and had the match gone the distance part-timers Salman Agha or Kamran Ghulam would have been required.

Slow left arm Arafat Minhas, who can bat a bit, looks the most likely inclusion probabaly for speiclaist batter Irfan Khan.

Possible Pakistan XI: Ayub, Shafique, Babar, Rizwan, Ghulam, Salman, Irfan, Minhas (sla), Shaheen, Rauf, Hasnain

Australia v Pakistan Second ODI pitch report

Think of Adelaide and we think runs. That's largely because of some big bits in the bash down the years. There's not a big chunk of eveidence that this is the case in ODI, however. In the last nine games (a ten-year sequence) there has been only one score of 300 or more and the run rate is at 5.48.

Shorting Pakistan's first-innings runs in game one paid dividends and it may be a strategy that is worth revisiting. We're unconvinced they have what it takes against a first-class attack and one which can trouble them with the short ball.

The under 235.5 early line, though, is too much of a risk even for Pakistan and we'd be look at unders 250 or 260 at around 1.9110/11 on the full market. There is no toss bias under lights.

Australia v Pakistan Second ODI match prediction

It is tempting to reckon that Pakistan's best chance of a victory has gone. Having their opponents at 155 for seven when defending 204 really should have resulted in a 1-0 lead.

Australia's squad churn, though. For game three gives them another chance. But this isn't game three. It's game two in Adelaide and we expect them to come up short. A reminder that they have two wins in their last 14 against the Aussies and both came at home.

The market agrees with the hosts no better than 1.261/4. There doesn't even seem much room for a trade on Pakistan at 4.707/2. If we're wrong about the pitch Australia at 4/15.00 with both teams making 300 may be of interest but we'd rather be finding winning margin angles.

Australia v Pakistan Second ODI T20 player bets

A successful swerve of Adam Zampa at the 'G for top bowler means we would be playing a very risky game indeed not to take the 16/54.20 about a bowler who has a two-year win rate on the market of 45%. it is the standout wager and we're hopeful that the Adelaide surface and conditions offer him the chance to outbowl the rest. If betting is about sticking to what we know, then Zampa rates the strongest option with other prices feeling like guesswork.

Some of those include Minhas at 50s for top Pakistan bat. Llikewise the twin 10/111.00 about Salman or Kamran being top Pakistan bowler. If they go with the same XI one, or both, will be bowling ten or a minimum five overs respectively. None of those three are mug bets and they do represent rick prices. But we're focussing on a winner with Zampa

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