Australia v India Third Test Tips: Aussies may pinch low-scoring thriller

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Australia v India
Saturday 14 December, 00:20
TV: live on TNT Sports

Australia v India Third Test team news

Josh Hazlewood comes straight back into the XI after missing the second Test. His recovery from a side strain, normally an injury which requires a long period of rest, has been remarkably quick.

Scott Boland, who was efficient and reliable in Adelaide, steps away but Australia may expect to use him again in a series which is packed into a tight calendar.

Otherwise, Australia are beginning to tick off worries. They're not the team in crisis that many believed, Marnus Labuschagne got some runs and Nathan McSweeney looked like he can survive at this level.

Now all they need is Steve Smith to end his run drought and they will feel they are in perfect shape to go on to take the series.

Australia XI: Khawaja, McSweeney, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, M Marsh, Carey, Cummins, Starc, Lyon, Hazlewood

India are tied at 1-1 and have yet to pick their best XI if you are a fan of the all-round qualities of Ravi Jadeja. Surely he is in contention to make his first appearance of the series?

Harshit Rana is vulnerable and adding Jadeja could strengthen their batting. With Nitish Kumar Reddy impressive, India may, however, feel that Jadeja's time has gone. Another option is Akash Deep coming in for a surface which could suit pacers who can hit the bat hard back of a length or nip it away.

Skip Rohit Sharma may return to the opening slot with the batter keen to make a statement of leadership. KL Rahul moves to No 6.

Probable India XI: Jaiswal, Rohit, Gill, Kohli, Pant, Rahul, Reddy, Ashwin, Deep, Bumrah, Siraj

Australia v India Third Test pitch report

Two defeats in their last four at the Gabba mean this is not the fortress of old for Australia. One of those came against India in 2021. The hosts failed to defend 328. Last year they suffered a shock loss to West Indies, who defended 216 in the fourth. That was a tricky match for batters and that game as well as the previous one involving South Africa (highest match score of 218) puts us on alert for shorting runs. Although there has been rain around pitches at this time of the year often favour the pacers, the surface is not reported to be as green as the SA Test.

Shorting India runs at around 320 or 330 could be sensible, though. As we saw in Adelaide they do have a struggle on when the ball is zipping about and it could do that here. The conditions could be alien for the tourists with rain or thunderstorms forecast for each of the first four days.

Australia v India Third Test match prediction

That weather forecast has ensured a cut in the draw price to 6.4011/2. Australia are 1.855/6 with India 3.259/4.

So what do we do about the stalemate? Well, the first thing to say is that the forecast is not bad enough to mean that over five days enough overs are lost. In fact, we often state that rain and cloud means a draw is even less likely. Witness the 4/71.57 with Sportsbook that this match doesn't go to day five.

That could mean we back-to-lay in anticpation of further cuts or wait to see if we get the opportunity to straight out lay at around the 3.259/4 mark. Those are two strategies to bear in mind.

As for the result, we are leaning towards the Aussies who were back to their gritty best under lights. India have gumption, too, of course but we do fear for them on tracks which suit the Aussie bowlers who remain slightly superior to India's, barring Jasprit Bumrah.

It is hard to argue, however, that the 1.845/6 price is wrong. It looks about spot-on. Any sort of shift in-play to odds-against and they are worthy of a play. This could be one of those Tests where a first-innings score of 260-270 is worth its weight in gold.

Australia v India Third Test player bets

Pat Cummins is yet to win top bwoler in the first innings in this series. His win rate in the last two years is now just below 40%. Surely he delivers this time? Cummins looks in great touch after doing the biz in the second innings in Adelaide. And the good news is that this is best home ground of those where he has played more than once in terms of strike rate, and bulk of wickets. He has 40 in 14 innings so we will take the 12/53.40. He really should be clear favourite.

There are not any huge fancies elsewehere. Shubman Gill fell nine short of a ton in 2021 at this ground and looked in decent nick in Adelaide. He is 11/26.50 with Sportsbook in the first knock.

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