Australia v India Third Test In-play Tips: Back India to make new ball count

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Australia v India
Saturday 14 December, 23:50
TV: live on TNT Sports

Australia innings runs sell an option

Day one in Brisbane was about as anti-climactic as it gets. Following ding-dong affairs in Perth and Adelaide, Australia and India could only engage for 13.2 overs.

The draw price, often an irrelevancy in the modern game, is now the centre of attention. It crashed to 1.9310/11 after the washout and it may get shorter yet considering the forecast for the next four days is poor. Australia are 3.1085/40 and India 5.609/2.

This column is steadfast in its belief that one shouldn't pay to much attention to the weathermen once the price goes odds-on. But it is becoming increasingly risky to get involved on the lay button.

There is the possibility of play in the afternoon on day two and, of course, time can be made up but there does need to be a significant change in the forecast.

Weather forecast
Day 2: A 66% chance up until lunch with ;likelihood of rain dropping to 10% from 14.00 to 16.00 and then clear.
Day 3: First session rain probability never lower than 40%. Final session at least 67% chance.
Day 4: Average rain chance of around 34% throughout
Day 5: Likely clear first-and second sessions. Rain chance around 35% for the final session.

Essentially, one is betting on the storms and cloudbursts blowing over or running out of steam. It would not be surprising in the least if the forecast remained bang on or we got three clear days to finish things off.

Indeed, that is all that could be needed. With moisture in the air and under foot, India chose to bowl first on a green and grassy surface at the Gabba.

It looked pretty similar to the surface used for the South Africa Test in 2022. That was dominated by the bowlers. South Africa batted first and managed 152 and 99. Australia were rolled for 218 and chasing a target of 34 they lost four wickets.

India clearly expect something similar. their flip decision was the first of its kind for them in an away Test in ten years. Akash Deep was added to the line-up to make use of the conditions while Ravi Jadeja adds batting strength with Ravi Ashwin dropped.

The tourists will need to be sharper with the ball. They largely wasted their opportunity for early blows by straying down the leg too often. In Adelaide with the pink ball they didn't bowl full enough. They were better towards the end of the play available, however. It would be smart to spend time in the analysts' room discussing what they did right - and wrong.

The first-innings runs line has Aussie runs at 332.5 unders. The opportunity to regroup, the overcast conditions and stop-start nature for batters mean it's not the worst bet in the world. really, Jasprit Bumrah should be close to unplayable.

Inevitably in such conditions thoughts turn to a 30 or 40 winning the top bat. Pat Cummins always stands out and Sportsbook's 35/136.00 is worth an interest for minimum stakes.

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