Australia v India Fourth Test In-play Tips: Jadeja needs to hold up Aussies

Australia v India
Friday 27 December, 23:30
TV: live on TNT Sports

Australia v India Fourth Test in-play match prediction

Australia are 1.511/2 for a come-from-behind 2-1 series lead following a dominant day two display at the MCG. As much as Australia were relentlessly aggressive, India, in the field at least were bedraggled and low on inspiration.

A potentially series-changing partnership of 112 for the the seventh wicket from Steve Smith and Pat Cummins had set the tone. Smith notched his 11th century against India and Cummins cut and drove with freedom, falling one short of his 50. It was noticeable how limited India looked in the field with Jasprit Bumrah was out of the attack, something that has been mentioned in pre-game previews.

The Australia pair scored runs at a whim as India were unable to even come up with a plan to stem the flow. It took Rohit Sharma far too long to bring Ravi Jadeja into the attack (he hadn't bowled for more than 40 overs) and when he did he almost immediately induced a false shot from Cummins.

There is a sense that the series is beginning to slip away from India, who look tired and low on confidence. They are loading up Bumrah with work and they may require a spinning surface in Sydney to get a foothold again although with Ravi Ashwin having retired mid-series they are less potent. With the bat, Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli may not be far from joining Ashwin with pipe and slippers. Both failed again.

By contrast, the under-pressure Australia batters have found a way. Marnus Labuschagne knuckled down for another 50 while Smith's resurgence was a reminder that writing him off - and Australia - was premature.

At 310 runs behind, a rearguard from Rishabh Pant and Jadeja is now required. India at least bat deep with Nitish Reddy and Washington Sundar to come. The bad news is that bating conditions could be tricky. Skies are overcast and there is forecast rain around lunch.

Jadeja most suited to counter

We await the Pant special. The counter-attacking innings which hauls India back into the contest has been on the cards in Adelaide and Brisbane without it materialising. Could this be the knock?

Pant resumes on six with Sportsbook offering his runs at 31.5 overs at 5/61.84. It is a tempting overs play, not least because one suspects he comes out all guns blazing. It could be a very quick win. By the same token, he is 4/51.80 to hit more than 2.5 fours. That might be the less risky option because it keeps a wham-bang-out innings from the hitter onside. Pant is 15/82.88 for a 50. It is not close to win-rate value. He is a 24% chance with Sportsbook rating him at 35%. Even accounting for the six-run headstart the price is too short.

Jadeja goes under the radar somewhat because he is more circumspect. But he is comfortably the best all-rounder in the world and on 2024 form could easily be picked for one discipline or the other on its own. His runs are available to buy at 27.5 at 5/61.84. That could look cheap with him resuming on four.

He already has one rescue mission under his belt this series (77 at Brisbane in the first) and has a habit of it. See against Bangladesh in Chennai in September or against England in Rajkot in February. Sportsbook go 9/43.25 that he reaches a half-century. He's a 33% chance on 12-month form so there is a chunk of value there.

Now read more Cricket tips and previews here