Australia v India First Test Tips: Time for Kohli to step up

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Australia v India
Friday 22 November 02:20
TV: live on TNT Sports

Australia v India First Test team news

Australia are to hand a debut to Nathan McSweeney, who will open the batting with Usman Khawaja. McSweeney is given the opportunity to be the long-term replacement for David Warner.

McSweeney does not not average more than 40 in first-class and is actually classed as an all-rounder. But he has six centuries in 34 games and is seen as a wise head on 25-year-old shoulders.

He already settles the rest of the line-up, allowing Steve Smith to return to no 4 following an ill-fated spell as opener. They need runs, though. None of the top five are busting 40 in the last 12 months.

The bowling attack is as strong as ever. And more importantly well-rested. Josh Hazlewood and Nathan Lyon each have strike rates below 40 in the last 12 months.

Probable Australia XI: McSweeney, Khawaja, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, M Marsh, Carey, Cummins, Starc, Lyon, Hazlewood

India have been hit by availability issues right from the off. Skip Rohit Sharma is missing to be at the birth of his child and Shubman Gill is struggling with a fractured thumb.

The perceived wisdom is that KL Rahul comes in to the opening slot, Virat Kohli moves up to No 3 and Dhruv Jurel slots into the middle order. Abhimanyu Easwarana, who is uncapped, was in contention to open with Yash Jaiswal but he has struggled on pacy pitches in the nets. Rahul failed twice against Australia A in Melbourne in the first week of November.

The visitors will also require another pacer to work alongside Jasprit Bumrah and Mohammed Siraj. Akash Deep looks likely to win the role.

Probable India XI: Jaiswal, Rahul, Kohli, Sarfaraz, Pant, Jurel, Jadeja, Ashwin, Bumrah, Siraj, Deep

Australia v India First Test pitch report

There have only been four Tests played at Perth Stadium. All were won by the side batting first but it's not a trend to take too seriosuly at this stage. India were beaten by 148 runs in 2018 at the venue but were bang in the game until the fourth innings when set 287. It could be a baptism of fire for India with the bat at least.

This is not a WACA-style quick pitch but regardless the visitors are likely to find the pace and bounce difficult to adjust to considering the surfaces they were playing on against New Zealand earlier this month. With their batting line-up unsettled we will keep an eye on their par line with early prices suggesting a short at 315.5 may be on the cards.

India's run totals in the first Test of a series in Australia since 2007 read: 244-250-444-282-196. It adds weight to the argument that they might need time to get used to alien conditions.

Australia v India First Test match prediction

Australia are 1.434/9, India 3.953/1 and the draw is 19.50. As reflections of the two teams' differing preparations, those prices seem about right.

Australia have rested their key men, particularly that bowling line-up, with a laser-like focus on success in a series which now rivals the Ashes as the big contest in the world game. India, on the other hand, have had no warm-up, have lost two key batters and got beat 3-0 at home to New Zealand on raging turners.

The sides are in very different spaces. Australia have won 11 of their last 12 first Tests of home series. The odd one out was against India in 2018 in Adelaide. It might be a mistake for India backers to cling to that result against an Australia side which was transitioning.

Of course it cannot be forgotten that a depleted India won 2-1 on their last visit. It could be that another ding-dong affair ensues over the series with both Bumrah and Siraj causing the Aussie bats problems historically. If so, a 3-2 Australia series win has appeal with Sportsbook at 6/17.00.

For this game, though, big Australia runs in the first match innings brings that draw price in sharply.for a basic trade. And if india are to cause an upset they are surely going to need a repeat of 2018 by staying int the game, albeit batting first this time.

Australia v India First Test player bets

Virat Kohli has won India first-innings top bat 31.2% of the time in the last two years (16 Tests). It is a remarkably strong return for a player we are told is in decline. Sportsbook make him a 22% chance at 7/24.50. What is in Kohli's favour is that Australia in Australia gets the competitive juices going and a ton the last time he played on this ground in Tests. We also hope that the absence of Rohit focuses the mind for a score. Jaiswal is also value on win rate at 4/15.00, giving up 8.57% points.

One Indian we are not keen on is Rahul. He has had struggles in Australia in the past, averaging 20. We should be able to go unders at 26.5 in first-innings on his runs and a working over with the ew ball can be expected.

For the Aussies, Usman Khawaja wins on top bat at 27% so Sportsbook's 4/15.00 that he top scores in first-innings is fine. The 7/42.75 for a 50 is an easier win because we don't have to worry about anyone else. On two-year form there is an edge in our favour of 0.2%. Khawaja has been in decent nick domestically.

Pat Cummins, though, is the standout for top Australia bowler in the first dig. Cummins has copped at a rate of 42%. Sportsbook make him a 12/53.40 chance (29.4%) and it would be wrong not to get involved.

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