Australia v India First Test In-play Tips: Pant primed for second-dig win

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Australia v India First Test in-play match odds

Australia remain favourites for a 1-0 lead in the first Test of five after day one in Perth. But they failed to convince as 1.402/5 shots and it may be that their chances are overrated.

The hosts closed on 67 for seven, passing up an opportunity to bury India after they were bowled out for 150. The Aussies are 1.9110/11, India 2.1011/10 and the draw long gone at 510.0509/1.

Facing a likely first-innings deficit and having to bat last on a pitch which is expected to wear, Australia are up against it. The scorecard, of course, suggests a minefield but some of the technique on show, or lack of it, appeared to be the main issue. Marnus Labuschagne, increasingly becoming an uncomfortable watch, stood out for a truly bizarre way to get out for someone who had bored us all to sleep over 52 balls for just two.

The Australia bowlers could be under severe pressure in the third innings then. If a lead is conceded of 30-odd a moderately improved Inida batting performance may keep this it close to a choice affair going into day three.

What is in Australia's favour is India's odd selection calls. Leaving out Ravi Ashwin and Ravi Jadeja gives the visiting attack a limited look. Jasprit Bumrah, one gets the feeling, absolutely has to be brilliant. He has been with four wickets and Mohammad Siraj an able deputy. But if the ball stops moving or goes soft, to whom do India turn?

Washington Sundar is a trier but Gautam Gambhir, the coach, is surely a fool for thinking he is a better option that Ashwin or Jadeja. India absolutely needed their tried and trusted performers in this Test and in a potential low chase in the fourth on a crumbling wicket they could be guilty of letting Australia back in.

It is tempting to start to decipher the value here and now but there should still be plenty of options ahead of a fourth-innings target. In anticipation of a tight contest, we note the tie at 110.0109/1. That could have a chunk taken out of it at the death for a trade.

Australia v India First Test in-play player bets

Rishabh Pant should have earned his backers a comfortable top first-innings bat win. But he was pipped by Nitish Kumar reddy, although Usman Khawaja's butter fingers denied a head heat.

No matter, though. Pant is a second-innings specialist and his 37 in the first dig could prove to be a nice warm-up for something more substantial. Pant is the go-to man on win rate for the second-innings with four wins from 14 on the road, by far and the way the best record of any Indian. Virat Kohli, for example, has one win in 15. It is not unlikely that at some stage Pant has to cut loose, white-ball style. He will certainly be given licence.

We would expect Sportsbook to come up with around a 5/16.00 offering for Pant to do the business. The evidence from the first innings suggests he has little to beat.

To that end we are also keen on shorting Dev Padikkal's runs at around the 29.5 mark once he has got off the mark in-play. Padikkal was strokeless for a 23-ball duck in the first. We're not entirely sure he's good enough for this level and his dismissal was a poor one for a batter who had been in for so long, edging tamely off a length.

Sportsbook go 11/43.75 that both Pat Cummins and Nathan Lyon take two wickets in India's next innings. We expect Lyon to have more of a say, either if the Perth pitch detriorates or he has more overs to get through if it flattens out. What the bet isn't, however, is value on win rate. The two would have copped on this market three times in 16 in the last four years at home and five in 23 in all conditions in the last three years. Sportsbook rate it a 31% chance.

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