Australia

Australia v India First Test in-play Tips: Don't miss Khawaja chance

KL Rahul
rahul took the attack to the hosts

Ed Hawkins does a deep dive on the stats to find the value on the runs markets and top Australia bat as the visitors take charge in Perth...


Australia v India First Test Day Four in-play player bets

As discussed below, Usman Khawaja was a solid option for top bat in the second-innings for Australia at around the 7/24.50 mark. With his opening partner dismissed, Nathan McSweeney, and Marnus labuschagne also gone, he has fewer hurdles to clear.

So if you have not bet him yet, he is arguably even better value than he was at the start of Australia's innings, which is perilously close to humiliation mark II at 12 for three. Khawaja has a win rate of 25% win rate in the last two years in the third and fourth innings. He really should be much, much shorter and you can bet on the exchange.

Sure, he could get a good one from jasprit Bumrah early doors which makes us look like mugs. but the price is wrong.

Australia v India First Test in-play match odds

For a series billed as an epic, day two was a warning to the epoch-shattering which could be on its way. India, who already boast a 2-1 series win on their last visit Down Under, are now no better than 1.201/5 to take a 1-0 lead in the five-test series and put themselves on course to firmly establish cricket's new world order.

India swaggered on day two. Australia sweated and fretted. After conceding a lead of 46 with a wretched and tortured batting display, their bowlers were made to look equally as inept. The fact that Australia struggled for runs wasn't particularly surprising. Jasprit Bumrah, the cheerleader of Indian dominance, was superb with five wickets. But this was an Australia top five which had precisely zero incumbents averaging more than 40 in the last 12 months.

What was so unexpected that the Australian Rolls Royce axis of Starc-Cummins-Hazlewood were made to look so impotent. On a pacey wicket, not the WACA of old mind, an India line-up minus its skip, Rohit Sharma, and packed with inexperience was supposed to find the switch from dustbowls to hard ball tough. Well, they are quick learners after being rolled for 150.

Starc went at 3.5 an over, Cummins at 3.3. Easy street. Mitchell Marsh was innocuous while the hosts were forced to try to prise a mistake from KL Rahul and Yas Jaiswal, an ingenue in these conditions, using Travis Head and Marnus Labuschagne by the end.

Australia need a re-set. It was surely straight into a team meeting to find some answers, to rouse the unit into displaying the mongrel spirit which serves them so well when under the cosh.

It might be worth a bet on them finding something, if only for the historical numbers. India's par line is set at under 425.5. If they were to reach 425 it would be the 12th highest third-innings score by the opposition in history in Australia. It is a mighty effort. Sportsbook go unders 432.5 at 5/61.84. Only ten sides have made more in history in Australia in this innings.

The reality is that India are unlikely to need as many. The market reckons the game is as good as won. The highest fourth-innings chase in Australia is No 2 on the all-time list: South Africa's 414 at the WACA in 2008.

What might prevent them getting so far ahead is, first of that Aussie fight, and second the looming new ball. At 57 overs Australia need to bowl dry and wait for the cavalry to arrive. Nathan Lyon will get through half of the overs one would suspect. What is surely true is that there will be no declaration. India could bat for another day and a half if they wished at least.



Australia v India First Test in-play player bets

For top Australia bat bets, there are three win-rate options; Usman Khawaja, Travis Head and Alex Carey.

Khawaja has translated his superb record from the first- into the second-innings, marking him down as supremely reliable. He has a 25% win rate in the last two years in the third and fourth. This includes a win on this ground against Pakistan. He may be considered vulnerable to Bumrah, though, with the new ball.

Head is slightly protected and probably epitomises the Aussie fight better than anyone with the bat at least. His win rate is at 21%. We'd be looking for at least 5/16.00.

Carey has three wins in 20 and is the biggest edge at prices from 10s. Shouldn't he have won in the first, though? His inability to get Australia close to India's total does little to stop wonderings whether he's got the requisite mettle for such a high-class contest.

IPL auction special

This is a late add ahead of the IPL auction on Sunday. But Sportsbook have helpfully priced Rishabh pant at 6/42.50 for most expensive player. It looks like a gimme.

No-one really comes close to pant in terms of potential high pricing. And plenty of numbers have been crunched by analysts in this field whose figures show that he is by far the most likely to be the most pricey. maybe Arshdeep Singh could challenge him but there is expctation that the 25 crore mark could be busted.

One couldn't rule out a huge splurge on a Jos Buttler or Mitchell Starc. But they don't match Pant's attractiveness. there's the comeback narrative which is in-play but the overwhelming fact is thet he's a domestic international all-rounder. Priceless.


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