World Twenty20 Betting: Plenty of value in batsman and bowler markets

A complicated algorithm is not required to select a top batsman for the World Twenty20, which starts for real on Friday. It might help, but in the past sticking to the rule 'openers do best' has proved foolproof.

There have been four World Twenty20 tournaments and in each of them an opener has scored the most runs. Why? Because they have the opportunity to bat for longest and can make hay in the powerplay. Simple.

In the 2012 tournament, three of the top five runscorers were openers. Shane Watson came first, followed by Mahela Jayawardene, Marlon Samuels, Chris Gayle and Brendon McCullum. Samuels and McCullum batted at No 3. 

Two years previously for the Caribbean jamboree, the statistic was the same. Jayawardene this time was top man. The two who were not openers, once again, were No 3s. Four from the top five in 2009 were openers but only two from the top five were in the inaugural competition.

Unfortunately, Jaywardene is unlikely to open for Sri Lanka and punters are wise to his demotion, probably to No 4, and he is priced at 48.047/1. Instead Tillakaratne Dilshan, the 2010 top bat, and Kusal Perera hold the opening berths and are 26.025/1 and 32.031/1 respectively.

Lahiru Thirimanne, who made more runs than anyone in the recent Asia Cup in Bangladesh, could make a late bid to displace Perera and if so would represent a shrewd call at 75.074/1.

Still, there are other options. India's openers have snuck under the radar thanks to their country playing only one Twenty20 in the last 12 months. That fact rather renders run charts over the same period relatively useless.

But make no mistake there is nothing wrong with backing Shikhar Dhawan at 16.531/2 or Rohit Sharma at an outrageous 42.041/1. Sharma should be half the price and that disparity is big enough to make him the top pick.

Dhawan and Sharma averaged 48 and 36 respectively in the Asia Cup so their form is good enough and with India expected to go deep into the tournament, they should be there or thereabouts.

In the absence of run charts, it is wise to examine the averages for batsmen who have scored 200 runs or more since international Twenty20 began. Discounting inactive players, Sharma comes in at 16th. Not great but that is the sixth-highest opener.

Aaron Finch comes out on top for the openers and he is likely to be well backed at 11.521/2. Certainly he is a better bet than David Warner at 8.515/2. 

Another name which leaps from the page is Dwayne Smith, the West Indies No 1. He has been in cracking form and is too big at 42.041/1. Gayle is more fancied at 10.519/2.

Watch out for Kamran Akmal at 65.064/1, although purely on price. He should open for a Pakistan side with a good chance. 

Top Bowler

It is the strike rate that is most important when considering the top bowler market. As impressive as it is to see Saeed Ajmal, Umar Gul and Shahid Afridi listed as the top three wicket-takers of all time (a clue to why Pakistan are such a threat), further analysis is required.

It is far more important to pick a bowler who needs as few deliveries as possible, largely because the wicket charts are skewed by number of games played. In that regard, Ajmal and Gul, who are 8.27/1 and 26.025/1 respectively, still impress.

By filtering bowlers who have taken 30 wickets or more, Ajmal is fourth on the list (not including players who have retired or are unavailable) with a wicket every 16.2 balls. Gul is second with 14.1 .

Sri Lanka's Ajantha Mendis, who is 13.525/2 is the king, however, dismissing a batsman every 13.2 balls.  To put that number into context Lasith Malinga, the favourite at 8.27/1, needs 17.5 deliveries per wicket. Sunil Narine, next at 8.415/2, is worse at 17.9.

Mendis was the top wicket-taker in the previous tournament in 2012 in Sri Lanka. Watson was second and Ajmal and Narine fifth and sixth respectively.

These are, of course, fine margins but there can be few better ways to uncover value. A bowler's blitz against an Ireland or a Bangladesh threatens our studious work but it is occupational hazard.

On that point it is fair to say that Gul, almost certainly, is the most overpriced bowler in the market. The gulf between his strike rate and price is too large.

Other prices of note are Dale Steyn at 10.519/2, although there are fears he has a hamstring injury. His strike rate stands up to scrutiny as does Mitchell Starc, the Australian, at 15.529/2. He was third in 2012.

Recommended bets
Back Rohit Sharma for top runscorer at 42.041/1
Back Ajantha Mendis for top bowler at 13.525/2