West Indies v England Fourth T20 Tips: England underrated batting second

West Indies v England
Saturday 16 November 20:00
TV: live on TNT Sports

West Indies v England fourth T20 team news

West Indies made changes for game three. They didn't work and the series has now gone. There will be more tweaks for this one as they seek a winning formula at 3-0 adrift.

Matthew Forde is out with an injury so Obed McCoy comes into the squad. He could immediately replace Terence Hinds who was expensive again. Shamar Springer would be another option to add much-needed batting depth.

They have been poor with the willow, failing to breach 160 batting first in the last two. Brandon King was replaced by Shai Hope in the opening berth. Sherfane Rutherford's spot went to Shimron Hetmyer. Andre Russell is injured.

Possible West Indies XI: Hope, Lewis, Pooran, Chase, Hetmyer, Powell, Shepherd, Motie, Akeal, Joseph, McCoy

With the series won England will almost certainly give Jofra Archer a rest. That opens up a space for either Reece Topley or John Turner. Topley was struggling with a jarred knee so it could be Turner's time again.

Rehan Ahmed replaced Adil Rashid and we don't expect Rashid to come back in even if the former was pricey. Saqib Mahmood and Jamie Overton were stars in game three with three wickets apiece.

Possible England XI: Salt, Jacks, Buttler, Bethell, Livingstone, S Curran, Mousley, J Overton, Rehan, Turner, Saqib

West Indies v England Fourth T20 pitch report

The tour remains in Gros Islet at the Daren Sammy Stadium so all they key stats remain relevant. Game three was the first day-nighter in all T20 since 2019. In the 2010-19 span, there was a bias for the chaser. Of the 17 games played 12 were won by the team batting second. England's win chasing, then, means we respect the bias. Twelve of the last 28 first-innings have busted 180. We have no faith in the West Indies batting so we would only play England for runs at a likely par line in the low 180s. It should be a flat track.

West Indies v England Fourth T20 match prediction

The dead rubber nature of the game has had an impact on the match odds market. In short, they can barely be split with England at 1.9010/11 and West Indies 2.0621/20. The price on the hosts is only a cut from 2.166/5. Let's remember they are 3-0 down here.

Given the stubborn nature of the odds, then, we're happy to back England with the toss bias in their favour. We have no fear about them getting up if the West Indies managed to show some batting ability.

We are consistent in the view and have been for some time that the market rarely takes notice of a toss bias. At well-established biases in a tournament, yes. But not after one game.

West Indies v England Fourth T20 player bets

Shai Hope is back in the XI and in the opening slot to boot. Before game three he was winning top bat at 29% in the last two years. Hope was 4/15.00 but has now been cut to 10/34.33. That is still value. There are big prices which catch the eye lower down. Akeal Hosein is 40/141.00. For England, we repeat that Jacob Bethell is not a 17/29.50 chance on ability or at No 4 in the order.

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