West Indies v Australia Third T20 Tips: Ed Hawkins has bets at 4/1 and 13/2 for pivotal game of series

• West Indies price not budging despite bad defeats

• Australia can wrap the series

• Warner Park surface tricky to call

• Shepherd outstanding value bet at 4s for top bowler

• Powell drifts to 13/27.50 for top bat

West Indies v Australia
Saturday 26 July, 01.00
TV: Live on TNT

West Indies v Australia Third T20 team news

West Indies have said farewell to Andre Russell who was allowed a two-game swansong in Jamaica. Both ended in defeat with their best bowler, Romario Shepherd, being kept out of the side so the all-rounder could have his moment. There's a lot wrong with West Indies cricket these days.

There's no guarantee Shepherd comes straight back in. Matthew Forde is also a contender. And it could be argued a raft of changes are neeeded to prevent them from losing the series in the quickest time possible. 

Evin Lewis, the hitter, needs to come under consideration with Roston Chase and Sherfane Rutherford possible outs while Alzarri Joseph's wayward displays in the format have continued. His three overs cost 50 in game two. 

Possible WI XI:  King, Lewis, Hope, Chase, Hetmyer, Powell, Shepherd, Holder, Motie, Akeal, Forde

Australia are pleased with themselves after Cameron Green thumped them to victory in a potentially tricky chase of 173. Green hit 56 from 32 and he grabbed the opportunity to nail down a place. Josh Inglis also showed tremendous form.

If that is two roles sorted they do have an issue in the opening slot. Jake Fraser-McGurk was dropped meaning Glenn Maxwell was a surprise No 1. In time, of course, Travis Head plays there but he is not on this tour. It could be that Inglis is also asked to bat there at some stage.

Fraser-McGurk's spot went to Tim David. They also played two spinners in Matt Kuhnemann and Adam Zampa. They may return to an extra pacer in Sean Abbott.

Possible Australia XI:  Maxwell, Marsh, Inglis, Green, Owen, David, Connolly, Abbott, Dwarshuis, Zampa, Ellis

West Indies v Australia Third T20 pitch report

Runs are not often forthcoming in T20 internationals at Warner Park. In the last ten the average first-innings score is 139. In franchise in the last 10 that number is 197. You would be right to wonder what the best thing to do is. With another two games to come we could adopt a wait and see policy because the discrepancy is so huge. Another example; average number of sixes per game in T20i is 11 compared to 23.5 in franchise. For fours its 31 and 49 respectively.

Sportsbook go over/under 19.5 sixes and 23.5 fours. Maybe that fours price is the edge. Australia's total match runs price immediately sticks out at unders 180.5 if the international form holds. It is difficult to understand why there is such a big gap in runmaking. Normally it is the other way round with a load of games played on similar surfaces in a short space of time in franchise keeping averages low. Franchise leagues do often bring boundaries in, though.

West Indies v Australia Third T20 match prediction

West Indies are 2.466/4. That's not the big drift one might have been hoping for considering they are 2-0 down and we were getting close to 2.608/5 before game one. Their inability to keep things tight has not improved since profligate displays in England at the start of the summer. And we have already noted some of the team changes that are required.

Australia are 1.674/6. Regardless of the state of the surface the strategy has to be clear. Any uplift in their price if they are chasing to the 1.804/5 region or bigger should be snaffled. The toss bias of eight wins in 10 for the side bowling first in T20i solidifies our thinking. Furthermore if Joseph was playing we would double the stake. His economy rate in the six matches he has played this year is a snip under 13.

It is that inability to think on your feet or do the basics that should set these two sides apart. And it is worth repeating: betting Windies at lower odds following two defeats just doesn't sit right.

West Indies v Australia Third T20 player bets

This is pretty simple. We have to keep faith with two West Indies players who deliver time and time again with high win rates out of line with their ratings by the layers. Shepherd has a superb return rate of 50% in the last 16 matches and is consistently underrated. If he doesn't play then it's money back but we have to get involved with Sportsbook's 4/15.00.

With the bat it is Rovman Powell. Powell has two blanks in the series so far meaning his return rate has dipped to 31%. But he is still as big as 13/27.50, a drift from 6s. Recognising Lewis as a threat on his home franchise ground where he has an excellent record is noted. He is 11/43.75. 

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