T20 Cricket World Cup Tuesday Tipsheet: Yanks can repeat Pakistan shock

• Dutch now vulnerable to suffering a shock

• UAE need Chennai spinning track

• Kiwis impress versus Afghans

• USA have giantkilling form

• Read the team guide and rankings HERE

• Read our Ultimate Guide to the tournament HERE

• For Betfair's latest cricket betting odds click here

Netherlands v Namibia - Back Namibia to win 

Netherlands v Namibia
Tuesday 05.30
TV: live on Sky Sports

The Netherlands should be basking in the glory of slaying the giant that is Pakistan. How they came to throw away a game which they had in their pocket could well haunt them and undermine confidence against a confident Namibia.

It is tough to criticise but the dolly drop to rid them of Faheem Ashraf and then some of the worst death bowling you're likely to see means they are surely unbackable here at skinny odds-on. We would expect to be getting around 2.447/5 about Namibia.

Whether that gulf is justified remains to be seen but the two appear to be well-matched. Namibia have a slightly superior win-loss ratio since the end of the last World Cup while the Dutch concede, on average about 0.3 runs per over fewer. Where the game could be won is through Namibia's power hitting. They rank No 1 oustide of the Big Boys on strike rate on the same filter. 

Indeed, Sportsbook recognise this and they are as short as 8/111.73 to win the most sixes market. Now, anyone who has folllowed the emergence of the data analyst in this format will know that sixes are everything in T20. The team that hits the most, wins the most. So surely Namibia should be much shorter on the match odds if they are the team with six appeal?

For players to follow, 3/14.00 Michael Levitt is the right jolly for top Dutch batsman. His win rate was clipped from 30% after a blank against Pakistan. With the ball Kyle Klein should be skinnier than 4/15.00. For Nambia, the top-rated are batter Nicol Loftie-Eaton at 5/16.00 (four wins in 13) and 13/53.60 Ruben Trumpelmann, four wins in nine.

New Zealand v United Arab Emirates

New Zealand v United Arab Emirates
Tuesday, 09.30
TV: live on Sky Sports

It has gone unnoticed but New Zealand arguably have produced the performance of the tournament so far, taking down Afghanistan in Chennai in difficult conditions.

The Kiwis looked up against it at the break chasing 183 against an army of spinners and with demons inside their head. In their opener in the last T20 World Cup they were hammered by Afghniatsan in similar conditions. Not this time. They banished the doubts and strolled home with more than two overs to spare.

Remaining in Chennai they will hope that they get a fresh surface as they will know that the wickets there can get slow and low with traffic. UAE will not be in agreement. They want that grip and hold in the surface to make this attritional and get their odds down from 17.5033/2. A trade could well be an option but we wouldn't be looking for a choice affair.

UAE are not the strongest of the Associates but have ability to get a fingerhold in a contest largely thanks to players getting experience in ILT20. They rank fifth and fourth among their peers for batting and bowling power and economy respectively. Their win ratio has them as the fourth-best performer.

In terms of players to follow, opener Muhammad Waseem has a 40% return rate in the last 16 games so Sportsbook's 11/43.75 is not a huge surprise. Alishan Sharafu is also win-rate value at 4/15.00. With the ball Muhammad Jawadullah is Mr Reliable for UAE and should be skinnier than 3/14.00 in terms of how often he returns. 

Pakistan v USA - back Pakistan to win

Pakistan v USA
Tuesday 13:30
TV: live on Sky Sports

Pakistan' and USA are two teams both contemplating what could have been but for different reasons. Pakistan really should be have been defeated by Netherlands, who let them off the hook, while the Americans will wonder how they didn't produce the greatest shock of all after reducing India to 118 for seven. Even in a chase of 162 they should have got closer then they did.

With Nepal also falling at the final hurdle against England, that's three near misses. Will an Associate team get as close again? One wonders whether the best chance of an upset has now been passed up.

This fixture was earmarked early on as a likely upset, not least because USA beat Pakistan in the last World Cup. Perhaps Pakistan's wobble against the Dutch has been the wake-up call they needed. Perhaps the Yanks are feeling sorry for themselves.

What might bring the sides closer together again in terms of mentality and ability is the SSC pitch in Colombo. Domestically in the last two years it has been slow and low with half of the matches coming under 150.5 in the first dig. The run rate has not been above eight. Indeed, Netherlands' 147 proved competitive.

We have to consider, then, that the USA have a chance to be bang in the game. They looked good in the warm-up and almost took down the hot favourites. At 6.205/1 they at least have a chance to make this a choice affair in play.

Read Ed's Team Guide and find out which players to follow in our Ultimate Guide