T20 Cricket World Cup Saturday Tipsheet: Two shocks incoming on day one?

• Pakistan vulnerable to shock

• West Indies make get surprise versus Scots

• Abhishek opening role means runs

• Read the team guide and rankings HERE

• Read our Ultimate Guide to the tournament HERE

• For Betfair's latest cricket betting odds click here

Pakistan v Netherlands - Don't miss Dutch at 13s

Pakistan v Netherlands
Saturday 05.30
TV: live on Sky Sports

We start as we mean to go on in this tournament and bet on blood. A giant-killing or two is to be expected in the competition and things could start with a bang at the SSC in Colombo.

And Pakistan have form. They were beaten by USA in Dallas in the last World Cup. Netherlands are no strangers to an upset, either. It's in their DNA when they stunned England way back in 2009.

As is so often the case, we do need a leveller to help bring the Pakistanis closer to the Dutch level. That could come in the form of the Sinhalese pitch, which has been slow and turgid in domestic cricket. A run rate of 7.7 in 19 matches since 2024 could well mean we have an attritional affair. There have been only eight scores which have breached 150. 

Wet weather in the build-up and heavy cloud on the day of the game also suggests this is a contest which could be enjoyed more by bowlers than batters.

The Dutch are 13/114.00 with Sportsbook and we have to play, not least because there is another factor which could upset Pakistan. Their prospects of success in the tournament have been significantly hampered by their government implementing a boycott for their Group A match against India. That puts them under pressure before a ball has been bowled as they will already have a strike in the loss column. 

There is no guarantee but the Pakistan players could be dispirited. And while Netherlands have managed to get on the park in the warm-ups, Pakistan's one scheduled contest was abandoned. 

We don't pretend that man for man Netherlands are on the same level but they have more than serviceable performers who will squeeze every last drop from their ability. They are no mugs and should be skinnier. 

West Indies v Scotland -  Hope the standout at 13/53.60

West Indies v Scotland
Saturday 09.30
TV: live on Sky Sports

Scotland's preparation for this tournament has been non-existent as a late, late replacement for Bangladesh. They appear to be as excited about managing to source a kit as actually playing their opening match.

But a relaxed, happy vibe is no bad thing. What's the point of being het up and tense in T20? If the Scots can bring their joy and freedom to game two of the tournament then another surprise could be on the cards.

Certainly few would be surprised if West Indies were victims to an upset in this tournament. Since the end of the last World Cup they have the lowest win percentage of the top nine teams at just 33. They lost twice to Nepal in September, a team beaten by the Scots in the most recent head-to-head.

Both the Exchange and Betfair Sportsbook offer 13/27.50 about Scotland. It is a tempting bet, but only if they were to bat first at Eden Gardens. On what should be a road, Scotland have the ability to hit well. If the flip was to go against them, however, it is probable that the Windies batting could have them under significant pressure by the break. 

A good way to have the Scots on side is to play over their total number of sixes at 5.5. They average six per match over the last two years. In the same study period against the Test-playing nations, that number rises to 7.2. And against Namibia in their second warm-up they crashed an impressive 15.

Players to follow include Romario Shepherd at 9/25.50 for top West Indies bowler. In a 32-game study period (since the last World Cup ended), he has won the market 31% of the time. It is more than odd, however, that Windies fail to recognise his potency. He didn't even bowl in their last match so keep stakes sensible.

Shai Hope has a win rate of 28.5% in the study period. Sportsbook rate him a 27.8% chance to top score for his team. Although the margin is slim, it could be considered chunky in the contest of an Associate attack, a flat wicket and the opportunity to bat in the powerplay as an opener. 

For Scotland, George Munsey and Brandon McMullen have three wins from their last ten so the 7/24.50 and 4/15.00 are not the worst wagers. 

India v USA - time to back Abhishek top India tournament bat

India v USA
Saturday 13.30
TV: live on Sky Sports

Such is the temperature of favourites for this tournament that India are 1.011/100 to beat the Americans in their opener. Now, granted, the hosts are by far the best team in the tournament but it remains an incredibly skinny starting price despite the gulf in ability. We do not rule out the USA getting a fingerhold in this contest, not least because that's all would be required to take a chunk out of their 50.049/1 price.

In the warm-up matches USA got within seven runs of chasing New Zealand's 208. They also gave a very strong India A a cracker of a game, going down by 38 in a chase of 238. Thanks to the emergence of Major League Cricket, this lot can play.

It is probably fair to say that USA would need to bat first at the Wankhede, which is flat. Otherwise India's price is barely going to shift as they should be good for getting up way past 200. But if the Americans got first use, then they could raise eyebrows. We're not looking to trade them to make this a competitive heat but they are more than capable of getting into the late teens for a back to lay.

A simpler way for betting USA to be in the game is to bet both teams to score 160 at 13/82.63. It's a price which says: USA can't bat. We don't believe that to be true. 

Abhishek Sharma is expected to go well for the hosts. Betting him for runs and a half-century is fair with Sportsbook. Long term we're looking at the 9/52.80 he tops overall for India in the tournament. He strikes at 220 with an insane average of 44. And it's a major advantage opening against Associates. 

Read Ed's Team Guide and find out which players to follow in our Ultimate Guide