Ed Hawkins previews Scotland v PNG and Oman v Bangladesh in Al-Amerat on Tuesday in the T20 World Cup qualifiers...
"The Scotland opener strikes in the 150s against pace and spin and he should be very dangerous against a weak attack"
Scotland v Papua New Guinea
Tuesday 19 October 11:00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Scots on charge
Scotland shocked Bangladesh in their first match, apparently. Maybe the result was a shock, maybe it wasn't, but it's unlikely that Bangladesh were particularly surprised. Slow, low wickets are a great leveller.
So Scotland should beware. It wasn't so long ago they were shocked themselves by Singapore. If the Sots keep their heads here a win almost guarantees them qualification.
The form of all-rounder Chris Greaves should help. With bat and ball he was the difference for the Scots.
Possible XI Munsey, Coetzer, Cross, Berrington, McLeod, Greaves, Leask, Watt, Davey, Sharif, Wheal.
Papua New Guinea looked rusty in their opening defeat by Oman. Not surprising considering the amount of cricket they have played this year.
Tony Ura, their Mr Reliable with the bat, went for a duck and they were two down after nine balls. PNG fought hard though to muster 129 with Assad Vala and Charles Amini putting them on course for a good score. Alas one wicket brought several. That could be a feature of this tournament.
Probable XI Ura, Siaka, Vala, Amini, Bau, Vanua, Atai, Doriga, Ravu, Morea, Pokana,
Al-Amerat is a stodgy, slow wicket. A score of 140-odd will be more than competitive batting first and threatens that toss bias, which was at 63% before the first two matches.
PNG struggling in field
Scotland are 1.201/5 with PNG 5.709/2. At such odds we have only one real option: a trade on the outsiders.
We would need the toss to go our way and PNG to improve their batting. But if they can post a score of 130-140 the Scots might get a sweat on.
The reality, however, is that PNG are going to have to overperform with the ball most importantly. There's precious little evidence they can manage that.
Big things are expected of George Munsey, the Scotland opener, who strikes in the 150s against pace and spin. Sportsbook have boosted him to 11/4 and he should be very dangerous against a weak attack. Graves looks sensational value at 22s, particularly if he is promoted one spot.
Brad Wheal appeals at 7/2 for top Scotland bowler. The Hampshire man is superb at the death and could pick up cheap wickets against a weak tail.
Bangladesh v Oman
Tuesday 19 October 15.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Bang go bang
Bangladesh have played three and lost three in Oman. They suffered two warm-up defeats to Ireland and Sri Lanka. So the six-run loss to Scotland wasn't hugely surprising.
They are vulnerable, too, against Oman. That's largely because on difficult wickets their lack of aggression costs them. On Cricket...Only Bettor we pointed out they had the lowest boundary percentage of any of the established nations.
More intent is required. Liton Das, normally prepared to have a go, must set the tone. Shakib-al-Hasan needs to buck his ideas up too.
Possible XI Das, Sarkar, Shakib, Mushfiqur, Mahmudullah, Afif, Mahedi Hasan, Saiufuddin, Taskin, Mustafizur
Oman in with a shout
Oman are buzzing at home. They knocked the PNG bowlers around the park for a dominant win and they will be relishing the chance to take down Bangladesh.
They've actually got a 63% chance of advancing to the proper tournament now, according to @cricketsims.
Possible XI Illyas, Singh, Khawar, Maqsood, Prajapati, Kushi, Nadeem, Khan, Goud, Kaleemullah, Bilal Khan
Trade for Oman
Oman have their blueprint for success. Bat first, set Bangladesh 140 or more and then try to squeeze.
In such a scenario, Oman would be considerably cheaper than the 4.10. So there is a trade chance, there. We don't expect Oman to get much joy if they have to chase.
We once again highlight the potential for Afif Hossain to top score for Bangladesh at 12s. He could well be promoted due to his batting intent. Shakib is 10/3. Mahmudullah is underrated at 7s.
Other side market prices that stand out are the 6/4 that Oman hit more sixes than a shot-shy Bangladesh. Plus 5/4 that no 50 is scored in the first-innings in tricky batting conditions.
Simon Doull on the T20 World Cup on Cricket...Only Bettor
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye column p-l