T20 Cricket World Cup Monday Tipsheet: Players to bet at 10/3 and 3/1

• • Afghans look vulnerable

  • Salt clear value now ahead of Buttler

  • Australia may be saved by pitch

  • Ellis to the fore

  • For Betfair's latest cricket betting odds click here

Afghnaistan v UAE - back-to-lay UAE to 2.01/1 

Afghanistan v UAE
Monday, 05:30
TV: live on Sky Sports

Afghanistan require the improbable if they are to make it through to the Super Eight stage. With two defeats in Group D they have to win their final two by big margins and hope Canada beat New Zealand. Such an unlikely scenario makes them potentially vulnerable.

Have they given up hope? Will the edge have gone from their performance to let in a UAE team who, with a confidence-boosting success against Canada, have a better chance of progress?

The UAE are two points behind the Kiwis. They also need the Canadians to do them a favour if they fail to win both of their last two matches. One of those is against South Africa.

With a starting price of 5.509/2, the UAE are serviceable for a trade. They have some solid players, notable Muhammad Waseem and Alishan Sharafu, the openers. 

In Delhi, a probable flat surface may help UAE. A dung heap may have supercharged a mean Afghan bowling attack so UAE can hit through the line with confidence on a surface which they know. They chased 150 against the Canadians there. Three of the previous four games saw more than 200 busted.

A straightforward trade on UAE to make this a choice affair is advised. Back them at 5.509/2 and the look to lay back for twice the original stake at 2.001/1.

England v Italy -  back Phil Salt top England bat

England v Italy
Monday, 09.30
TV: live on Sky Sports

England have been deeply unimpressive in their three matches so far. They were lucky against Nepal, well-beaten by West Indies and had a wobble against Scotland. Still, there was nothing notable in the latter in terms of significant odds change.

That last point is key. For although there is good reason to be down about England they need to have a major panic attack for significant numbers to fall from Italy's starting price at 13.5025/2. There is also a very strong argument that their SP is a very poor price indeed. They should be significantly bigger, particularly as they are without their inured skip Wayne Madsen.

Still, is this becoming a trend for Brendon McCullum's teams? Why the talk of pressure in the England camp? They have played two Associates and a team they would expect to beat comfortably and need only finish in the top two. The pressure comes in the next stage or a knockout.

What is most concerning is the drop in form of Jos Buttler. His top-bat win rate in this format has collapsed to 25% meaning it is relatively simple to argue that opening partner Phil Salt should be clear favourite with a mark of 30%. Salt is 10/34.33 and betting him keeps onside a race to 30-odd with Buttler in case of a low-scoring chase. 

Sri Lanka v Australia - back Nathan Ellis top Australia bowler 3/14.00

Sri Lanka v Australia
Monday, 13.30
TV: live on Sky Sports

There will be a rush to get against Australia here. Defeat by Zimbabwe at the RPS, in the biggest shock so far, was not wholly surprising because the Aussies had been beaten three-zip by Pakistan on similar, low-scoring, spinning wickets in preparation. 

The good news for Australia is that Pallekele has not been the stodgy paradise for spinners recently. Sri Lanka smashed 225 there against Oman. That could say more about Oman's bowling than the pitch, of course. 

In Sri Lanka's T20 series versus England there were runs in two of the three games. A rain-affected contest Saw Sri Lanka post 133 in 16.2 overs. In game two they made 189 which was chased. Only the final T20i, possibly because the surface was used, was low-scoring. This really shouldn't be a the same wicket which was used for the Oman game, as much as Sri Lanka might want it to be.

If we're right about the surface, then death bowlers may have more say than spinners. Considering Nathan Ellis, then, for top Australia bowler makes sense. He has seven wins in 16 and we make him favourite instead o 3/14.00 second jolly. 

It is must win for Australia. Another loss would require Zimbabwe slipping up against both Ireland and Sri Lanka and then a net run rate swing of improbable size would be needed. 

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