T20 Cricket World Cup Tips New Zealand v Pakistan: Pakistan value in the chase

• New Zealand face trial by spin
• Pakistan value in 'home' conditions
• But chasing key at RPS at night
• Farhan short makes sense
• For Betfair's latest cricket betting odds click here

New Zealand v Pakistan
Saturday 21 February, 13.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

New Zealand v Pakistan T20WC team news

New Zealand will expect to make it out of Super Eight Group 2 with Pakistan, Sri Lanka and England their rivals. But this is a potentially tricky test at the RPS which examines their ability to deploy and combat spin.

Lockie Ferguson is a doubt for the game after returning from paternity leave. It is a handy excuse to find room for Ish Sodhi. Games like this could expose the importance of Michael Bracewell. Without the injured all-rounder the batting depth isn't quite there. They tried Cole McConchie in that role against Canada and he was taken apart. Glenn Phillips may have to do more bowling. 

Possible NZ XI:  Seifert, Allen, Ravindra, Phillips, Mitchell, Chapman, Santner, Neesham, Sodhi, Henry, Duffy

Pakistan can recall Abrar Ahmed to the XI if they wish. It gives them a potentially nasty-looking spin army which could tie sides in knots. Abrar could rejoin Mohammad Nawaz, Usman Tariq and Saim Ayub in bowling 16 overs of spin. Shadab Khan may also come back into the XI for Khawaja Nafay.

Faheem Ashraf might miss out with pacer Salman Mirza keeping his spot ahead of Shaheen Afridi. The batting of Sahibzada Farhan has been explosive and Pakistan need that to continue among a top order which can be a little stodgy.

Possible Pakistan XI: Farhan, Ayub, Salman, Babar, Shadab, Nawaz, Usman, Faheem, Afridi, Tariq, Abrar

New Zealand v Pakistan T20WC pitch report

Expecting big runs at the RPS might not be the best idea even if the surface looked pretty good for Zimbabwe's chase over Sri Lanka. Unlike that contest, this is a night game and the two start times have produced differing trends.

For a start in the 14 night matches in T20i since 2021, ten have been won by the chaser. The average runs per over in that study is 6.9 in the first innings with 165 or more busted once and 160 or more busted five times. That last figure gies us a clue as to where the par line should be set. New Zealand's total match runs at 162.5 looks about right at 5/61.84 over/under with Sportsbook.  

New Zealand v Pakistan T20WC match prediction

If we are correct in reckoning that the toss trend holds and should be respected, Pakistan would represent value as outsiders at 2.166/5. We do not expect the market to move significantly were the flip to go their way.

These sides have played each other a lot recently and conditions have been important. New Zealand won 4-1 at home in March. Before that there was a 2-2 draw in Pakistan. These are 'home' conditions for Pakistan and in fairness it is probably a choice affair.

The golden rule is to swerve Pakistan when odds-on, of course, but this doesn't feel like a risk to get with them if they chase. They seem to have got their house in order despite the chastening loss to India.

New Zealand v Pakistan T20WC player tips

Farhan is Pakistan's Mr Reliable in this tournament. It is something of a new role for him. Consistency has been a major issue for him. He has been about a one in four or five merchant, which is exactly what you would expect for someone of his gung-ho style. There were hints that Pakistan were a little tired of him as the axe fell just before the competiton began. He has roared back. However, this is a test. The new ball pair of Matt Henry and Jacob Duffy, who has a record of a wicket of under every 11 balls against Pakistan threatens his contunued form. go against the tide and short his runs at 22.5.

Now read Ed's Ultimate Guide to the T20 World Cup