T20 Cricket World Cup Wednesday Tipsheet: Back two outsiders with day of shocks possible

• • UAE have ability to cause upset

  • Chastened Pakistan vulnerable to Namibia

  • Time for Kuldeep chance

  • Abhishek to return to form

  • For Betfair's latest cricket betting odds click here

South Africa v UAE - Back UAE @ 15.014/1

South Africa v UAE
Wednesday, 05:30
TV: live on Sky Sports

This is a dead rubber for the South Africans, who have already qualified for the Super Eight stage. Seeded teams knowing which group they go forward to means finishing first or second as a qualifier is irrelevant. So could the Saffers be a little vulnerable against a UAE team who will be desperate to leave a mark on the tournament? 

Possibly. The South Africans have form for being upset in this tournament. In 2022  they lost in the Super Eights to Netherlands but the game was no dead rubber. And in the final first group phase in 2024 they squeezed home against Nepal by one run, defending 115.

Backing UAE, then, at 15.014/1 on the Betfair Exchange has some merit. Not least because this is not a mug team. In Muhammad Waseeem and Alishan Sharafu they have proper batters up front while Junaid Siddique and Muhammad Jawadullah are dangerous with the ball. Indeed, Siddique is joint-third on the overall wicket-takers list.

There is a slight advantage for UAE that the games takes place in Delhi on a wicket they know well having played twice there, beating Canada and losing to Afghanistan. They gave the Afghans a good game and knowhow of the surface (including how to stick in a tight chase when defending) should help. 

It is perhaps not ideal for South Africa that they have played all of their group games on the flatter Ahmedabad track. Delhi has looked a but tacky and we note how India, after a fast start, lost wickets in a hurry when new batters were asked to adjust. It could be a little two-paced.

Pakistan v Namibia - Back Nambia @ 9.208/1

Pakistan v Namibia
Wednesday, 09.30
TV: live on Sky Sports

In terms of the odds, Namibia beating Pakistan would represent a whopper of a shock. But would anyone be truly surprised if Pakistan failed to get over the line given the context of what they have done so far in this tournament?

They should have lost to Netherlands but for a single dropped catch in the penultimate over. They then produced a horror show against rivals India with a gettable target in a chase on a groud where there was a huge bias for the team batting second. Chastening is the word. Confidence must be low.

Pakistan absolutely have it in their locker to chuck in another stinker here and there will be no doubt that Namibia will fancy their chances. They are aggressive and organised and it is possible Pakistan won't be able to match the desire from their opponents.

The SSC surface in Colombo should assist Namibia in bridging the gap. It was the same venue for Pakistan's struggle against the Dutch. We don't expect big runs and if Nambia can get up to the 150 mark batting first (or restrict Pakistan to the same) they should be in the hunt. Taking pace off with the ball, fielding like dervishes and running hard are all areas where Nambia can match Pakistan.

India v Netherlands - Two India player bets to have

India v Netherlands
Wednesday, 13.30
TV: live on Sky Sports

India, who are 1/1001.01 with Sportsbook, have the opportunity to rest Jasprit Bumrah in a meaningless game. They could put Varun Chakravarthy on the bench and give game time to fellow spinner Kuldeep Yadav if they felt it was important to keep him tuned up ahead of the Super Eight stage.

Kuldeep and Varun rarely play together as they did against pakistan. But when Kuldeep does get a game he is extremely reliable, winning top bowler six times in the 14 matches he has played since the end of the last World Cup. It is therefore worth considering the wager on him for top India wicket-taker at 16/54.20. It's a great price. The Dutch are durable but players like Kuldeep (and Varun) have a point of difference which they have rarely encountered. Money back if a non-runner. 

Abhishek Sharma was expected to be the batting star but with one match of the group stage to go, he hasn't even scored a run. He has recorded two ducks either side of being hospitalised for illness. It is a disastrous tournament for him but unless there is a physical of mental crisis, there should be no reason why he shouldn't at some stage show the form which has made him the most destructive T20 batter in the world.

Abhishek's win rate for top bat in all games since the last World Cup has been clipped to 37% so the 3/14.00 is clear value for top India bat, particularly with the possibility that India could be chasing a small target. 

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