New Zealand v South Africa T20 Cricket World Cup Tips: Kiwis underrated again

• New Zealand more efficient than South Africa
• Recent head-to-head a good pointer
• Check Ahmedabad for used surface 
• De Kock may be due a top-bat win
• Read Saturday's Tipsheet HERE
• For Betfair's latest cricket betting odds click here

New Zealand v South Africa
Saturday 14 February, 13.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

New Zealand v South Africa T20WC team news

New Zealand produced probably the most impressive performance of the tournament so far to win a game when they got up to beat Afghanistan in spinning Chennai. And although they were a little leaky with the ball against UAE, their aggression in a chase when they didn't even lose a wicket caught the eye.

In pairing Finn Allen and Tim Seifert on the eve of a tournament they went from a team which looked shot-shy up to one which suddenly had all bases covered. 

They are unlikely to make any changes to their XI unless they feel the wicket will take significant spin. That could mean Ish Sodhi coming in for one of the three pacers.

Possible NZ XI:  Seifert, Allen, Ravindra, Phillips, Mitchell, Chapman, Santner, Neesham, Henry, Ferguson, Duffy

South Africa look set to recall muscle-bound all-rounder Corbin Bosch to the XI after he missed the Super Over drama against Afghanistan. Unless they're feeling risky, using two left-arm finger spinners against four Kiw left-handers makes little sense.

That means Geroge Linde is likely to miss out. Aiden Markram and Tristan Stubbs can fill in if spin is required.

Possible SA XI: De Kock, markram, Rickleton, Brevis, Miller, Stubbs, jansen, Bosch, Rabada, Maharaj, ngidi

New Zealand v South Africa T20WC pitch report

There are suggestions that this will be the same surface used for the Afghanistan-South Africa double Super Over in Ahmedabad. That does give concerns that it might not as run-laden as it has been historically. It is best to wait for the pitch report pre-toss, of course, for confirmation but South Africa's total runs at 179.5 might be a little toppy on a worn surface. A crack Kiwi attack can also not be discounted. In the Duffy-Henry-Ferguson axis they have three of the more potent pacers in the competition. In the last 30 T20i New Zealand concede an average of 158 match runs.

New Zealand v South Africa T20WC match prediction

New Zealand and  South Africa appear to have navigated the group of death without so much as a sniffle. Both have won two matches, including avoiding the banana skin which was Afghanistan. Admittedly New Zealand did that imperiously and South Africa by the seat of their green pants but this contest would not look out of place in the final.

The match odds have the Kiwis outsiders at 2.1411/10 and, as usual, it is a relatively simple case to make that this is a wrong one. Their efficiency and reliability means they would not be outrageous favourites. They just seem to have more brains than the Saffers.

This was in evidence in a 3-0 success rate in the Zimbabwe tri-series last summer. Although man for man these are not the exact same XIs, South Africa could only lay a glove in one of those games.

New Zealand v South Africa T20WC player tips

Quinton de Kock is due a win on top bat. After his return to the team he is copping at a rate of four wins in 12. QDK should benefit from batting up top in the powerplay when the wicket will be at its best in his team's innings, either because of the roller or first use. Sportsbook rate him at 3/14.00. His performance quote (1pt per run, 10 per catch) at 38.5 for overs at 5/61.84 may be an easier win. 

Now read Ed's Ultimate Guide to the T20 World Cup