Twenty20 World Cup

Afghanistan v New Zealand T20 World Cup Tips: Afghans should 'shock' Kiwis

Glenn Phillips
Phillips is a fantastic bet at 10s

Ed Hawkins backs the outsiders in Providence early on Saturday and finds player bets at 25/1, 17/2 and 10/1.

  • Afghanistan primed for upset

  • Kiwis underprepared

  • Phillips a standout

  • Slow Providence pitch

Afghanistan v New Zealand
Saturday 8 June, 00:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Afghanistan v New Zealand T20 World Cup team news

Afghanistan's bowling stock is so impressive they can afford to leave out Fareed Ahmad, who has a superior win rate on top bowler to Faz Farooqi and Naveel-ul-Haq. Farooqi rolled Uganda with five wickets. They may add more specialist spin in the form of Noor Ahmad for Karim Janat at some stage. The top order is flexible bar the opening pair.

Probable XI: Gurbaz, Ibrahim, Najibullah, Nabi, Naib, Omarzai, Rashid, Janat, Mujeeb, Naveen, Farooqi.

The Kiwis are tried and tested in big tournaments. They have gone with familiar names. We're not convinced Kane Williamson is an asset, though, as he merely delays the arrival of big hitters like Glenn Phillips and Mark Chapman to the crease. There is even a suggestion that Rachin Ravindra plays instead of Chapman, which would be a mistake. They really should try to find room for the excellent all-rounder Michael Bracewell, too, but they may go for the safe option of Mitch Santner and Jimmy Neesham.

Probable XI: Conway, Allen, Williamson, Mitchell, Chapman, Phillips, Neesham/Bracewell, Santner, Southee, Boult, Ferguson

Afghanistan v New Zealand T20 World Cup pitch report

The Providence pitch is back to the the old days. It's a slow, low turner. And we're looking to get short of runs. Unfortunately the 20-over par line is bang on at unders 154.5. Maybe if the Kiwis were to bat first that natural market bias for the 'big' team could tick it up by ten runs. If so, it's a sell.

Afghanistan v New Zealand T20 World Cup match prediction

Afghanistan are 2.526/4 outsiders. Would a win for them be such a shock? Probably not. They are the best bowling team in the tournament and on a slow surface they will back their experience and skill to do the business.

Sure, we have worries about the Afghan batting but they should know that a total of 150-160 is defendable if they were to bat first.

The Kiwi preparation has been non-existent. They haven't played a warm-up and may need time to adjust to conditions. That could prove decisive.

Afghanistan v New Zealand T20 World Cup player bets

Glenn Phillips, pound for pound, is probably the best cricketer on the planet. He can do it all across all formats. His hitting and spin could be key in Providence and we will take the 25/126.00 on man of the match prices. Luckily the 10/111.00 about him top scoring is also an outrageous price. Phillips wins 23.68% of the time. Chapman is also underrated at 17/29.50 The hitter wins 19% of the time.

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