Pretoria Capitals v Sunrisers Eastern Cape
Tuesday 14 January, 11:00
TV: live on Zee
Pretoria Capitals v Sunrisers Eastern Cape SAT20 tips
Sunrisers, the holders, have lost two from two. As alarming as their slide, more should be made of their decision-making. Ottniel Baartman as their sixth bowling option in a tight chase against Paarl? Baartman has a 50% win rate in two years on top bowler. But he is unbackle now until we see some rational gameplans.
At Centurion, clear thinking and plans are essential because of the flat nature of the surface. And even though Sunrisers look set to go off at odds-against, they are now a proposition which makes one nervous.
Instead, it may be best to wager on batters dominating. The opportunity to do so has been delayed because of rain in Pretoria-Durban on Sunday. The weather forecast is much better with no rain forecast.
More than 200 in first-innings on five-year form is a 4/15.00 chance. More than 220 is a 2/13.00 chance. Keep those numbers in mind when perusing the first-innings market. On sixes the average is 20 and we can play overs at 17.5 at 5/61.84 with Sportsbook.
A couple of top-bat picks include Zak Crawley at 9/25.50. That's big for an opener and this is just for sort of pitch which rewards his technique. Senuran Muthusamy has batted up the order for Pretoria so we note the 16s.
Gulf Giants v Desert Vipers
Tuesday 14 January, 14:30
TV: live on Sky Sports
Gulf Giants v Desert Vipers ILT20 tips
These two meet in Dubai in a night game and the toss is likely to prove important. The Giants were on the receiving end of the bias for the chaser when they failed to defend a stiff target of 175 against Sharjah. Before that contest there was a 66% bias for the chaser from 50 matches.
Vipers are primed to go off favourites but they are a mug bet at 1.748/11 pre-toss. We don't expect the market to move too much on the toss so anything odds-against on Giants works well with the obvious caveat.
The sixes market is of interest again. Is under 13.5 really too short at 8/111.73? In the last four years it has won 77% of the time in 87 matches. If we filter to ILT20 and night matches only, it is nine in 14. That's 64%. A reminder that 8/111.73 is 57.9% implied probability.
Listen: Cricket...Only Bettor - SAT20 Ultimate Betting Guide
Durban Super Giants v Joburg Super Kings
Tuesday 14 January, 15:30
TV: live on Zee
Durban Super Giants v Joburg Super Kings SAT20 tips
Durban defended 209 by the skin of their teeth in game two against Pretoria at Kingsmead. We expect another high-scoring game in a day-night contest. It was the seventh time that more that 174.5 has copped.
It is possible the par line is creeping into the 180s, however. We can keep both teams on side for runs by playing Sportsbook's sixes market which is too low. Historically over 17.5 sixes has copped at sliughtly more than 50%. We can buy at 14.5 at 10/111.91. In that Durban-Pretoria match there were 20. It would have been more had Kane Williamson not been playing and his selection prevents us from maximum stakes.
Seven from the last ten day-nighters at the venue have been won by the team batting second. So we're veering towards trusting Joburg at an anticapted 2.206/5 with the toss in their favour. They also won their first match of the season, downing tourny favourites Cape Town.
It was good to see Leus du Plooy bat at No 3. Du Plooy has a win rate of 40% in this tournament in the last two years including this season. Sportsbook make a him a 4/15.00 chance which has been pushed out from 7/24.50.
By the look of Joburg's batting - Faf du plessis, Devon Conway, Jonny Bairstow - Du plooy has to beat reputation rather than runs. He is a better bat in this format than all three.
Back Leus du Plooy top Joburg bat
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