Twenty20

Thursday's ILT20 and SAT20 Tips: Hot picks at 11/4 and 7/2

Wanindu Hasaranga
Hasaranga is a solid bet

Ed Hawkins previews Desert Vipers v MI Emirates and Joburg Super Kings v Pretoria Capitals on Thursday...

  • Low-scorer incoming in ILT20

  • Hasaranga in good form

  • Rain could impact Joburg overs

  • Jacks could benefit


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Desert Vipers v MI Emirates
Thursday 16 January, 14.30
TV: live on Zee

Desert Vipers v MI Emirates ILT20 tips

Vipers are top of the table and were impressive in dismantling Gulf Giants on Tuesday. They worked well in the field together in restricting Giants to 119 and then got over an early wobble in the chase.

We do note how they hide their UAE players, though. All-rounder Ali Naseer was entrusted with only one over despite their dominance while we would be surprised if keeper Tanish Suri batted higher than No 9. at some stage they may need six proper bowl options.

The match odds market looks likely to be pitched as a choice affair, or Emirates being made marginal favourites. We doubt the market is waiting for the toss although it probably should do. In the last four years there have been 53 results with 35 won by the team chasing. We would be happy to bet Vipers at even money with the bias in their favour. The runs per over in that study period is 7.8.

The sixes market has historically been a short. Under 13.5 has proved too generous by Sportsbook so they have moved the line at 11.5 at 10/111.91. In the last four years in all conditions from 62 matches, you would have lost only 22.

On the player markets we are keen to get with Wanindu Hasaranga. Hasaranga looked to be in nice form against Giants. He was disguising his googly well and the 11/43.75 that he takes most wickets for his team is of interest. We know that Hasaranga has a win rate of 33% so there is a big chunk in our favour.


Joburg Super Kings v Pretoria Capitals
Thursday 16 January, 15:30
TV: live on Sky Sports

Joburg Super Kings v Pretoria Capitals SAT20 tips

Joburg are priced at 1.748/11 favourites with Pretoria Capitals at 2.001/1. If the money flow continues the same way Pretoria will surely drift and bigger will be available before the off. Will we be taking some of it?

Possibly. That's because they are a tricky team to call. They let slip a golden chance in a high chase to down Durban, then had a washout and last time out gave Sunrisers a beating. But we won't get carried away with the latter because Sunrisers have been shockingly poor.

What will provide a comfort rug for odds-against Capitals is the toss. That's not because there is a toss bias (it's fifty-fifty from 26 matches), though. On a potentially flat surface Pretoria may need to be frontrunners. That means they need that security of conditions advantage, batting first and the opportunity to bust 200. That score, by the way, is about a 3.2011/5 chance historically before the competition began.

The weather forecast, alas, isn't the best and that probably prevents us from playing overs on the par line. But it won't put us off backing Will Jacks to top for Pretoria. He has a win rate of 33% in SAT20 and with two blanks so far is approaching the win zone. A rain-shortened match would help us but we do need ten overs for bets to stand. Sportsbook offer 7/24.50.

We do like Wihaan Lubbe for Joburg at 11/112.00 but our gamble will be to wait for a game which doesn't lose overs. He might not bat higher than No 5. We may also want a trickier batting surface to knock over a few cheaply up front.


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