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Fire face stern test of improvement
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Cardiff pitch has been flat
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Invincibles go again after Phoenix win
Welsh Fire v Oval Invincibles
Sunday 28 July, 18.35
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Welsh Fire v Oval Invincibles team news
Fire opened with an easy win over Originals by eight wickets. They remain without Haris Rauf and Matt Henry who compete in the MLC final on Monday morning. Josh Little will continue. There is no room for hitter Steve Eskinazi but Jonny Bairstow showed signs of form.
Probable XI: Bairstow, Kohler-Cadmore, J Clarke, Abell, Phillips, Wells, Willey, Payne, Little, Crane, Ball
Invincibles got their title defence off to an impressive start by hammering Phoenix. Spencer Johnson should be available after the MLC with Mohammad Amir playing - and starring - for one game only. There was no room for Tom Curran or Jordan Cox.
Probable XI: Jacks, Malan, Muyeye, Billings, S Curran, Ferreira, Lammomby, Sowter, Zampa, Johnson, Saqib
Manchester Originals v Welsh Fire pitch report
Welsh Dragons made 243 in the final Blast game there this month. That's no fluke. It was a batting paradise in the Blast and 170 will be the target for the side batting first. A par line buy at 154.4 is cheap for buyers as the market has been slow to react. It was for the Superchargers-Rockets clash.
Back over 154.5 1st inns runs
Fire are 2.1211/10 outsiders. This is as one would expect. It could be the market has overreacted a little to them beating a depleted Originals side but we will see.
The strategy here is a trade on Fire if they bat first because of that flat Cardiff wicket. They could well flip these odds at the break. The weather forecast is excellent.
Dawid Malan has won at a rate of 35% but the 23/103.30 is only giving us a 5% edge. We can expect Sportsbook to come back with a boost offer closer to the off. We will back Glenn Phillips at 15/28.50 for top Fire bat. He's just too good a player to be that price and also too good not to have won a The Hundred top-bat market yet.
Back Glenn Phillips top Fire bat
London Spirit v Birmingham Phoenix
Saturday 27 July, 18.35
TV: Live on Sky Sports
London Spirit v Birmingham Phoenix team news
Spirit were outclassed by Southern Brave and it's not as if they had the excuse of player drain. Bar Zak Crawley they were at full-strength with both Andre Russell and Shimron Hetmyer in the XI. They managed only 138 with Liam Dawson top scoring and runs look like they could be hard to come by.
Possible XI: Bell-Drummond, Rossington, Pepper, Lawrence, Bopara, Hetmyer, Russell, Dawson, Ellis, Stone, Worrall
Phoenix are without three first-choice players due to England duty. But they were still under par against Oval, being bowled out for 89. They need much more from Liam Livingstone and Moeen Ali if they are to prevent another poor season.
Probable XI: Donald, Patel, Livingstone, Mousley, Moeen, Bethell, Howell, Abbott, Southee, Milne, Helm
Northern Superchargers v Trent Rockets pitch report
More than 160 in the first dig was busted three out of four first-innings at Lord's last season. In the Blast this term a 185 and 177 from four suggests it was pretty decent for batting, too. Spirit and Phoenix were ranked fifth and eighth for run rate last term, though so a par line in the mid 150s may feel like a shortt.
Make no mistake, these look like two poor teams. But there seems to be an overreaction to Phoenix's losst to the champions. At the start of the tournament Phenix were joint-second favourites for the title. Now after one loss they are suddenly 2.27 outsiders against a consistently poor Spirit who were outright rags?
There is no evidence whatsoever that this shouldn't be anything other than a choice affair. So we have to recognise Phoenix as the bet at inflated odds.
London Spirit v Birmingham Phoenix player bets
Two win-rate bets have appeal for this one. Liam Livingstone is 3/14.00 for top Phoenix bat. He wins 30.7% of the time in the last two years. And we stick with Adam Rossington at 9/25.50 for Spirit with a 29% win rate.
Back Adam Rossington top Spirit bat
Back Liam Livingstone top Phoenix bat
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