South Africa v Pakistan Third T20 Tips: Another runfest possible in Joburg

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South Africa v Pakistan
Saturday 13 December, 16:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

South Africa v Pakistan Third T20 team news

South Africa sealed the series on Friday night by chasing 206 under lights at Centurion. Reeza Hendricks' maiden T20 ton did the business. There was also an outstanding bowling performance from an unlikely source.

Dayyaan Galiem, a 27-year-old all-rounder, took two for 21 on a flat one when opening the bowling. Kwena Maphaka, the quick, was supposed to be the one to watch. It was also noticeable how South Africa used Donovan Ferreira as first change as the hosts read the conditions better.

With an unassailable lead, it's possible that Tabraiz Shamsi or Patrick Kruger, so far unused, might get a game. David Miller was left out to give Ryan Rickleton a go in the opening berth.

Probable SA XI: Hendricks, Rickleton, Breetzke, van der Dussen, Klaasen, Ferreira, Linde, Galiem, Shamsi, Maphaka, Baartman

Pakistan have to be asking themselves some difficult questions after they failed to defend a huge score with a big toss bias in their favour. For once, they can't blame their batters although Mohammad Rizwan was again on an inexplicable go-slow in the powerplay.

Saim Ayub and Babar Azam rectified that and a late onslaught from Irfan Khan set up what should have been a winning target. But Pakistan's balance was wrong again. They had only five bowlers for a surface which has historically been full of runs and they picked only one spinner. South Africa used three.

Most would reckon they would sort that but who knows? Sufiyan Muqeem, dropped after game one, might come back or they could use the all-round abilities of Salman Agha.

Possibe Pakistan XI: Rizwan, Babar, Ayub, Usman, Tahir, Salman, Irfan, Afridi, Abbas, Rauf, Abrar

South Africa v Pakistan Third T20 pitch report

There is no toss bias for Pakistan to cling to this time. Under lights in Jo'burg, 14 from 26 have been won by the team batting first. That's not a big enough trend. It is six wins from nine in a night game, though. The runs per over in those nine is 9.38. The side batting first has busted six times and there have been some big scores. India amassed 283 at this venue in November. Sportsbook go overs total sixes at 16.5 at 8/111.73 and over total fours 29.5 at 5/61.84. In those nine games it's three wins apiece. South Africa to bust 180 at around 1.9110/11 may be a solid strategy.

If that price doesn't materialise, try the 5/61.84 that South Africa post more than 83.5 in their first ten overs. They have comfortably busted the mark in both games so far so would need a downturn. No rain is forecast.

South Africa v Pakistan Third T20 match prediction

Pakistan became only the fifth team in 18 attempts to lose batting first under lights in Centurion. Given that they had 206 to play with, one wonders exactly what other assistance they need.

Such was the profligacy on display and such is the potential for runs at this venue that it may be best to wait for a repeat. South Africa look like they can get anything Pakistan post. And in that case we're looking at anything from around 1.9010/11 in play. Pakistan are just too short at 2.305/4 after two dismal efforts.

South Africa v Pakistan Third T20 player bets

Hendricks won for this column on Saturday. He had a reliable record and win rate. So it could be time to return to another batter who can be underrated in terms of wins: Babar Azam. The 11/43.75 doesn't scream value but he did look in great touch making 31 from 20. It is just possible that Sportsbook boost his price to 3/14.00. Another option is the 5/16.00 about winning the top bat market,. Babar has a win rate more in line with a 9/25.50 chance. We should also keep faith with Haris Rauf. Rauf has blown cold so far, which is entirely in keeping with his career. The 16/54.20 is a good price.

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