South Africa v Pakistan T20 Tips: Back tourists to defend plus player bets up to 16/5

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South Africa v Pakistan
Friday 13 December, 16:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

South Africa v Pakistan Second T20 team news

South Africa have lost Anrich Nortje to another injury. With no Aiden Markram, Kagiso Rabada, Marco Jansen, Keshav Maharaj, Wiann Mulder and Tristan Stubbs, this is reserve team territory.

Not that SA missed him in game one, or any of them for that matter. Instead, the startling pace of Kwena Maphaka was all the rage and his dismissals of Pakistan's two best batters (Mohammad Rizwan and Babar Azam) suggested they have a bowler of real potential.

George Linde, a replacement for Mulder, reminded everyone of his quality with 48 from 24 and then took four wickets to pick up the match gong. We expect the hosts to be unchanged, meaning Ryan Rickleton misses out with the bat again.

Probable SA XI: Hendricks, van der Dussen, Breetzke, Miller, Klaasen, Ferreira, Linde, Simelane, Peter, Maphaka, Baartman

Pakistan's old issues in T20 resurfaced again when they were just far too slow in the chase. A target of 184 didn't look insurmountable on a decent track but Rizwan's 74 from 62 was ponderous and applied pressure on to incoming batters.

Not surprisigly, few could get going. The desperation was eptimosed by Shaheen Shah Afridi being promoted to number. Irfan khan, a decent hitter, may not have been too happy at being kept down at seven. Salman Agha was a surprise omission because he gives Pakistan a sixth bowling option.

Probable Pakistan XI: Rizwan, Babar, Ayub, Usman, Tahir, Irfan, Afridi, Abbas, Rauf, Muqeem, Abrar

South Africa v Pakistan Second T20 pitch report

In the last 17 matches under lights at Centurion which have produced a result, 113 have been won by the team batting first. That is a hefty toss bias and suggests batting is tricky with the lights on. It will be the same for both teams, though.

Filtering night games only produces a study sample of six with four won by the side defending. Runs can be expected. The average run rate in that section is 9.17. More than 180 has been busted three times.

One would still prefer to be backing overs on SA runs because of Pakistan's inability to take aggressive risks early on. Sportsbook go 10/111.91 both teams to score 190.

South Africa v Pakistan Second T20 match prediction

South Africa are as short as 1.664/6 with Pakistan 2.486/4. It is a relatively simple task to make a case for these sides being more closely matched.

For a start, this is not South Africa's strongest team. That's not to say that it is a poor team but this has to be considered when taking their price into account.

Secondly, the toss bias is huge. Would we really want to be betting a less experienced South Africa with that against them at such skinny odds? No, of course not. We don't expect the odds to move significantly on the toss so Pakistan, despite their obvious failings, are worth a small risk to defend.

South Africa v Pakistan Second T20 player bets

Babar Azam has been boosted to 6/17.00 for top match batter by Sportsbook. He has 22 wins in 120 innings which equates to a 9/25.50 chance.

For the hosts Reeza Hendricks is 7/24.50 for top batter and has a good record at this ground with 265 runs at a strike rate of 173.

With the ball, we keep faith with Haris Rauf to deliver for top Pakistan bowler. The 16/54.20 offered by Sportsbook is solid and he should be clear fav.

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