South Africa v India Third T20 Tips: Sky's the limit at boosted 13/5

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South Africa v India
Wednesday 13 November 15:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

South Africa v India Third T20 team news

South Africa are back on level terms after a strong bowling performance in Port Elizabeth. They restricted India to 124 thanks to the ultimate example of hunting as a pack. Five bowlers took a wicket each in a mean and magnificent display. Nqabayomzi Peter, the leggie, was the pick with one for 20.

The batters strugggled, however, as pre-series worries about the flaky nature of the top order were realised again. They got home by three wickets with an over to spare. Aiden Markram's poor run continued while Marco Jansen was promoted to No 5.

Probable South Africa XI: Hendricks, Rickleton, Stubbs, Markram, Klaasen, Miller, Jansen, Simelane, Coetzee, Maharaj, Peter

India may consider dropping Abhishek Sharma from the opening slot. Although he is striking at 160 an average of 18 is below what is expected. Since a ton eight games ago against Zimbabwe he has not passed 20 and has only that one score of more than 20 in his early career.

Ramandeep Singh could come in to the middle-order, opening up the potential for Suryakumar Yadav to open or for the use of a pinch-hitter like Axar Patel. Alternatively India may say to Abhishek: carry on regardless on a wicket which will suit.

India should use three spinners again as they have found much joy with tweak. Varun Chakravarthy took five in PE.

Possible India XI: Samson, Sky, Tilak, Hardik, Rinku, Ramandeep, Axar, Avesh, Chakaratharty, Bishnoi, Arshdeep

South Africa v India Third T20 pitch report

This one is under lights at Centurion bringing into play a bias for the side batting first that stands as 12 wins from the last 18. Another key trend is for runs with 11 from 16 matches busting more than 170. Backing runs feels tricky because India's bowlers have largely dominated but with a historically flat wicket and the weather forecast clear it could be time for the batters to take charge. A par line in the mid 180s is an overs play. Sportsbook may make available prices for both teams to score 180 and 190 which are decent options.

South Africa v India Third T20 match prediction

These sides are well-matched so a reliable toss bias stat is more than useful. There are two ways to make it play.

First, wait for the toss and back the side batting first blind and sit back or switch off. Or second, try to be canny in-play and take any overreaction to a wicket or go-slow at odds-against.

South Africa are 2.1411/10 outsiders with India 1.8810/11. We don't expect the match odds market to be aware of the toss bias. It is rare that it factors in such a stat.

South Africa v India Third T20 player bets

Suryakumar Yadav has not won a top bat market for India in seven matches. He wins at a rate of 28% in the last two years. Sportsbook have boosted him from 5/23.50 to 13/53.60, implied probability of 27.8%. It's not a huge edge but these days rarely do we get a chunk for a batter who is now classed as a T20 great. We are also in the queue for a win on Keshav Maharaj on top SA bowler. Maharaj has a win rate of 30% so the 4/15.00 is tasty.

Marco Jansen is one to follow on the player performance market (1pt per run, 10 per catch, 20 per wicket) with a career make-up of 32. We can go overs 31.5 at 5/61.84. Jansen could potentially have three left-handers in the top five to aim at. That's key because he averages 11 against southpaws as opposed to 25 against right-handers.

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