South Africa v India Fourth T20 Tips: Reeza and Sky worth gamble

Cricket... Only Bettor. Listen to the latest episode now.

South Africa v India
Friday 15 November 15:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

South Africa v India Fourth T20 team news

South Africa are 2-1 down and need a win to avoid series defeat. They were well-beaten in Centurion after conceding 219 and apart from one game have struggled to keep things remotely tight in the field.

Lutho Sipamla, the pacer, came in for spinner Nqabayomzi Peter and was thrashed. Gerald Coetzee fared worse with his three overs costing 51. It could be time to recall Ottniel Baartman, possibly for Coetzee.

Possible South Africa XI: Rickleton, Hendricks, Markram, Stubbs, Klaasen, Miller, Jansen, Simelane, Maharaj, Sipamla, Baartman

India took a risk on a flat Centurion surface by dropping bowler Avesh Khan for the extra batter in Ramandeep Singh. It paid dividends with five bowlers doing the job and Ramandeep hitting 15 off six at the death.

Tilak Varma's century at 191 set up the game and he looks to have made the No 3 berth his own. A half-century for Abhishek Sharma was crucial in getting the opener an extended run.

Whether India go with the same XI remains to be seen. They will argue Tilak's part-time spin would have been used if needed and the youngster has spoken about getting all-round opportunities. It's not as risky at this venue because of rain to go with five only.

Possible India XI: Samson, Abhishek, Tilak, Sky, Hardik, Rinku, Ramandeep, Axar, Chakaratharty, Bishnoi, Arshdeep

South Africa v India Fourth T20 pitch report

This is a night game at Johannesburg. There have been only eight in all T20 in the last five years. Five were won by the side batting first. Does the trend extend to day-night games where conditions for the chaser should be similar? No. It's 13 wins 25. In the night games there is an RPO of 9.12. This is a whopping jump from a RPO of just 7.9 in day games. More than 180 has been busted four times in the study period, although rain reduced overs in two matches.

We could see a shortened game because there is rain forecast for the start time. That rather puts paid to plans for an overs runs winner. The 20-over par line does what it says on the time and there must be 20 overs for bets to stand. The straight par line needs five overs. It might be worth keeping in mind that RPO figue if we see a ten-over thrash. India's ten over score at overs 89.5 at 5/61.84 has appeal.

South Africa v India Fourth T20 match prediction

India have won 23 of their 25 T20s this year but we would have been against them in Centurion had South Africa realised that. It was a baffling decision to chase. There was a big bias for the team batting first.

In the absence of a toss bias here, we have to decipher whether the 1.804/5 about India is too short. it is hard to reckon it is given the issues South Africa have had with the ball.

In game three, the margin of defeat for South Africa (11 runs) looks like they gave it a good go. But the reality is that they were never really in the hunt. Outrageous striking from Marco Jansen, who pipped Heinrich Klaasen for top bat, when the game was won made it look much closer than it was.

South Africa v India fourth T20 player bets

Reeza Hendricks can be a frustrating player to wager on. He is actually a consistent hitter but it often feels like feast or famine. With a win rate in two years of 26%, he can be underrated. Sportsbook have boosted him to 9/25.50, which is implied probability of 18.2%.

You could argue that the opener has looked decent so far with two starts but with Reeza it could also mean a early exit is imminenta million-dollar 20-odd can be a speciality. What is in his favour as well as win rate, though, is the potential for a shortened game and form on this ground. He whacked 61 in Jo'burg last month. reeza also has a win for SA on their last visit with 83 from 44 versus West Indies.

Suryakumar Yadav has not won a top bat market for India in eight. Dpo we abandon him? he is far too good a player not to win soon. The 5/23.50 holds from game three and we go again.

Now read more Cricket tips and previews here