South Africa v India First T20 Tips: Saffers have edge over India

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South Africa v India
Friday 8 November 15:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

South Africa v India First T20 team news

South Africa are the closest to full-strength in an international game since the World Cup. The only absentee that potential backers may frown over is that of pacer Kagiso Rabada.

Otherwise big players return like Heinrich klaasen, David Miller, Keshav Maharaj and Gerald Coetzee. There are, of course, legitimate concerns about a batting line-up which could be considered flaky but it really is all about hitting power and the hosts are right to take such a strategy forward. Aiden Markram needs a score after a difficult time.

Possible South Africa XI: Hendricks, Rickleton, Markram, Klaasen, Stubbs, Miller, Jansen, Coetzee, Maharaj, Baartman, Sipamla

India are not at full strength with Jasprit Bumrah rested. But they are used to being without their talisman. There is, of course, no Rohit Sharma or Virat Kohli these days which is as it should be.

The world champs are in transition, then, under new skip Suryakumar Yadav. Abhishek Sharma and Sanju Samson are trying to make the opening slots their own, Tilak Varma auditions for the middle order again while Hardik Pandya and Axar Patel add all-round steel.

If there's a complaint then it might be the possibility that Avesh Khan is used at No 8 which would be a spot too high. Alternatively they could use Tilak as a sixth bowling option and play an extra batter like Ramandeep Singh.

Possible India XI: Abhishek, Samson, Sky, Tilak, Hardik, Rinku, Axar, Avesh, Chakaratharty/Bishnoi, Arshdeep, Dayal

South Africa v India First T20 pitch report

The toss should be important in Durban with this a night game. In 21 night games in all T20 matches, the team batting first have won 13. If that suggests batting is trickier under lights then we should see a similar trend in day-nighters, too, right? yes. That's a 60% bias. There's not a big chunk of evidence that we see huge runs here. There's a RPO of 8.3 in night games. More than 165 has been busted twice in the last seven although both were internationals and more than 200 came in on both. There's a suspicion that belters are produced for the best.

But there is risk in every bet and shorting runs would be far from outrageous. The first-innings par line at unders 180.5 looks a little high therefore. That should mean that under 190 should be avialable at around the 1.9110/11 mark on innings runs. There are some overcast conditions, too, to throw into the mix and some rain too. But we don't expect to lose overs.

South Africa v India First T20 match prediction

South Africa are 1.9310/11 with India 2.0621/20. It is a repeat of the World Cup Final. Unlike that game, we don't expect South Africa to wilt under the 'pressure' of a winning position.

They should take the win here, although backers should need the toss to go their way. India have to come in cold and in a potentially seam and swing-friendly Durban it could be a bit of a culture shock. With bat and ball. South Africa's players know Durban well (see Klaasen, Miller and Maharaj) and that could make the difference.

South Africa v India First T20 player bets

Suryakumar Yadav has not won a top bat market for India for five matches. With a win rate of 30% in the last two years we will be backing him to end that run in each of the three matches. Sportsbook's 12/53.40 just about squeezes in as a wrong price. Another wrong price on ability is Axar at 40/141.00. If the pitch is tricky then it might not take much to win. Axar has a win under his belt in the last two years and caused SA problems in that World Cup final with the bat with 47 from 31.

For South Africa, Klaasen has only two wins in his last 15 so Miller would make more sense at 11/26.50. He is a 4/15.00 chance on win rate. Maharaj wins at 36% with the ball but drier conditions may be required. We'll gamble on sitting this one out with him and then revisiting in game two potentially.

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