Seattle Orcas v MI New York MLC Final Tips: Toss to decide winner but back NY for sixes

• Toss bias is crucial

• MI New York have six appeal

• Pooran boosted to 7/24.50

Seattle Orcas v MI New York
Monday 31 July, 01:30
TV: Live on TNT Sport

Seattle Orcas team news

The Orcas thumped Texas to book their final spot in the qualifier. They also topped the ladder. Their strength is with the ball. In Ben Gannon, AJ Tye and Imad Wasim they have three of the top five wicket-takers.

Their batting has not been as explosive as it looks. They have been a bit too reliant on Heinrich Klaasen, who is number two on the run lists striking at 206. Quinton de Kock did come to the party in the qualifier, though.

Probable XI: De Kock, Anwar, Jayasuriya, Klaasen, Ranjane, Pretorius, Imad, Parnell, Harmeet, Tye, Gannnon

MI New York team news

MI New York match up against Seattle well in terms of the tops charts. They've got the best two of the lot. Trent Boult has 19 wickets and Nic Pooran is first on the run list.

They eased past Texas in the final eliminator, busting the toss bias to win by six wickets. Dewald Brevis, back in the team for Kieron Pollard, has produced two big innings in the play-offs.

Probable XI: Jahangir, van Staden, Pooran, Brevis, David, Wiese, Taylor, Rashid, Kenjige, Boult, Ehsan

Grand Prairie Stadium pitch report

In the 11 matches played in the tournament at Grand Prairie Stadium, eight have been won by the side batting first. As for first-innings scores, 160 or more has been busted five times.

The pitch looks tacky and hitting with freedom is tricky batting first. Orcas won a high-scoring match chasing in Morrisville, getting after 194. Despite that, the par line will have a feel of a sell.

Seattle Orcas v MI New York match odds

There's nothing to choose between these teams in terms of league batting and bowling run rates. So naturally we feel that the toss bias is the best way to split the two.

The match odds market appears to disagree. MI New York are 1.8810/11 favourites with Seattle 2.1011/10. We could we get 1.9110/11 about the Orcas batting first.

An alternative view is that MI New York's six-hitting power is the true divider. They smashed 47 to Orcas 33. It is a known fact that the side which hits most sixes wins the vast majority of games in the format.

Sportsbook are taking a risk for the second-consecutive game on New York on the most sixes market. The even money isn't short enough and is probably the biggest rick.

Seattle Orcas v MI New York player bets

Trent Boult has four wickets in each of his last three so the 5/23.50 he takes most wickets for NY will be popular. He is also 9/110.00 for man of the match. Klaasen is 7/24.50 for top Orcas bat and Brevis 10/34.33. Pooran is boosted to 7/24.50.