Twenty20

Saturday's SAT20 Tips: Can Capitals shock runaway Royals?

Will Jacks
Jacks remains a swerve for top bat

Ed Hawkins previews Paarl Royals v Pretoria Capitals and MI Cape Town v Durban Super Giants in the SAT20 on Saturday and recommends his best bets...


Paarl Royals v Pretoria Capitals
Saturday 25 January, 10:00
TV: live on Zee

Paarl Royals v Pretoria Capitals SAT20 tips

The Paarl winning machine looks well-oiled and efficient. With five wins from six (including four in a row) they now need only two more wins in all probability to ensure a top-two finish. 

On Thursday they chased down 143 against Durban Super Giants. They are nerveless batting second and all their successess so far have come when going after a target. With such a record we are often worried that they are untested when defending a total. Could this be the game where they come unstuck?

At Boland Park in day games there is a toss bias for the side chasing. Of the last 13 matches, 10 have been won by the side batting second. Now, if Paarl get the chance to chase again there should be no issue in notching a sixth win. But if they have to defend, Pretoria are in the game.

Capitals are 2.265/4 on an early show. That could drift to 2.305/4 closer to the off and we wouldn't expect any shift if the toss went their way. Capitals are second-bottom but they have had two washouts. Their challenge will be adapting to a slow, tacky track. There are signs that runscoring is, slowly, getting harder and mid 150s could well be the target for the side batting first.

For the players markets, David Miller is in the win zone with no successes so far on top bat. His form has been excellent, though, and he has managed two chases particularly well. Sportsbook's 11/26.50 is a decent price. We still await a Will Jacks win for Capitals but this is not the sort of surface that rewards those who like to strike through the line. We will sit out another game. 


MI Cape Town v Durban Super Giants
Saturday 25 January, 15:30
TV: live on Sky Sports

MI Cape Town v Durban Super Giants SAT20 tips

Durban need three wins - and big ones at that - if they are to make the play-offs. But a horrible fourth defeat in five against Paarl suggests a resurgence is unlikely.

Returning Quinton de Kock to an opening role and asking Heinrich Klaasen to bat at number three was too little too late. That sort of aggressive thinking was needed at the start of the tournament.

They posted only 142 with kane Williamson turning in another stinker. His strike rate for the tournament stands at 114 and it is impossible to overemphasise what a disaster that it is for a team when he bats at four, such a pivotal position. Any franchise which signs Williamson comes with a health warning.

The decision-making from the Durban brains trust was emphasised when coach Lance Klusener, after defeat by Paarl, said he was confident "five wins would qualify us". Given they can only get to the four says a lot. 

We expect MI Cape Town to win this comfortably at Newlands, particularly if they chase. In day-night games at the venue eight from the last 14 have been won by the team batting second

We have shown faith in Klaasen landing a top-bat win. Do we go back in again? Well, his win rate has dipped from just below 35% to 28.5. With Sportsbook making him a 10/34.33 chance he is still in win-rate range. The move to number three is a major boost. He did take 85 off 35 from MICT last season, although his record at Newlands is not striking. Ordinarily we might be in two-point territory but we will stick to one.


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