New Zealand v Australia First T20 Tips: Kiwis value batting first

Glenn Maxwell
Maxwell is 9/2 for top bat

Ed Hawkins finds a trend to suggest the hosts are value and has a solid 8/1 pick on the top bats for the action from Wellington on Wednesday

New Zealand v Australia
Wedesday 21 February
, 14.30
TV: Live on TNT

New Zealand v Australia team news

New Zealand's batting looks to be in a state of flux. They tried Tim Seifert, Will Young, Darryl Mitchell and Kane Williamson in the top four against Pakistan in their previous series alone.

Josh Clarkson could make his debut there or Glenn Phillips could get a slot. Mark Chapman will likely be on finishing duty. It's hard to be enamoured with Mitch Santner at No 7. Contrast that with Australia's depth.

Possible XI: Conway, Allen, Ravindra, Phillips, Clarkson, Chapman, Santner, Southee, Sodhi, Ferguson, Milne

Australia are gearing up for the World Cup with Pat Cummins, Mitch Starc and Josh Hazlewood all available. One would assume all three play although we do expect to see Spencer Johnson given game time at some stage. Nathan Ellis likewise.

Three for two won't go as far as David Warner, Travis Head and Josh Inglis for the opening slots are concerned. Warner and Inglis got the job for the two wins against West Indies so they would be a rationale choice.

Possible XI: Warner, Inglis, M Marsh, Maxwell, David, Wade, Stoinis, Cummins, Starc, Hazlewood, Zampa

New Zealand v Australia First T20 pitch report

There have been eight games at the Westpac since 2018. Of those, 175 or more has been breached four times. Overs a par line at around 170.5 is a play. Five have been won by the team batting first with one tie.

New Zealand are likely to bat first oif the toss goes their way. They've won 19 from 28 in the last two years batting first. Australia are easy with 54% and 56% win rates first or second in thelast two years.

New Zealand v Australia First T20 match odds

New Zealand are 2.789/5 with Australia 1.558/15. That's mighty short about an Australia side who produced a stinker last time out against West Indies. Given the data above, the Kiwis batting first may be worth a punt.

These sides met twice in 2021 on this ground with a win apiece. They often have tight games. On the head-to-head it's three wins each in the last six.

It's fair to say that on that form New Zealand deserve a little more respect. They're also tough to beat at home, losing five from 17.

Back New Zealand bat first @ 2.789/5

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New Zealand v Australia First T20 player bets

In the last 12 months Mark Chapman has top scored for the Kiwis five times in 23. That's 21%. We can't ignore Sportsbook's 8/19.00 even if there ios copmpetition from Finn Allen (33.35) at a boosted 7/24.50 and Glenn Phillips (16.6%) at 11/26.50.

For Australia, Glenn Maxwell has a win rate of 26% so the 9/25.50 offered by Sportsbook looks like a solid call unless you played on him winning two games. If the latter, we might gamble and hold fire.

Back Mark Chapman top New Zealand bat @ 8/19.00

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Read other Cricket Tips HERE

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Ed Hawkins P-L

2024: -15.03
2023: +77.75
2021: +29.41pts
2020: +5.91pts
2019: +37.25pts
2018: +23.53pts
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pt


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