Monday's ILT20 and SAT20 Tips: Miller time at 6/1 for Paarl

• Vipers the best team

• Azam too big at 25s

• Durban all but out

• Waiting for Miller to win

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MI Emirates v Desert Vipers
Monday 27 January, 14:30
TV: live on Zee

MI Emirates v Desert Vipers LT20 tips

MI Emirates suffered a surprise defeat by Gulf Giants on Saturday, pulling them back to the pack as they looked to strike out to bolster their chances of a top-two finish. They may argue that it was the toss bias for the chaser in this tournament that made all the difference.

But with this one taking place in Abu Dhabi as a night contest, there should be no fears about what the dew may or may not do to the team trying to defend a score. In the last four years the split is 20 from 39 for the chaser. And in the last two it has actually been a small advantage to bat first with nine wins from 15.

With Vipers the runaway leaders, many could be forgiven for reckoning MI need a little help from conditions. With three wins from seven they have hardly been pulling up trees and they have lost their last two. One more win for Vipers will confirm their position in the top two and an easier route to the final.

An early match odds show suggests Vipers will go off at around 1.855/6 favourites. It is therefore hard to argue that a rick has been made.

One price which does look wrong is the 25/126.00 about Vipers' Azam Khan top-scoring for his team. Azam is belligerent and occassionally brilliant. His price is so big because of batting order in the last two but he has batted as high as No 4 this term. He is no way near the price on ability and is worth a small stake.

Paarl Royals v Durban Super Giants
Monday 27 January, 15:30
TV: live on Zee

Paarl Royals v Durban Super Giants ILT20 tips

Paarl Royals confirmed their play-off spot by beating Pretoria Capitals last time out. Durban Super Giants, finalists last year, were beaten again and their campaign is now almost certainly over with two huge wins required and results elsewhere going their way.

The Royals win over Capitals might not have seemed like a big deal but it should be treated as confirmation that they are the real deal. They defended a score for the first time and it was a low one, too. They showed great acumen and fight in the field to ensure Capitals didn't get close to the target of 140.

Durban, meanwhile, can't defend a score or chase one as they suffered their sixth loss. The 149 they posted against MI Cape Town summed up their season. It was nowhere near enough with Kane Williamson again hampering them with 56 from 44. It was just too slow. Heinrich Klaasen at least won the top-bat market for the first time. 

With this match taking place at Paarl, the Durban batting looks unlikely to suddenly fire. The surface has been tacky and slow historically. And there is evidence that it is getting slower and slower this season. If they bat first, their run rate of 7.1 and Paarl's economy of 8.1 suggests a short on their runs. The par line is immature but we may be able to lay 160 or more for [2.10[].  On four-year form there is no evidence of a toss bias in day-night games (nine matches).

For players to follow we like David Miller at a big 6/17.00. He is always good for at least one win per tournament. His win rate is down to 14.3% in this comp which means the price is bang on the mark. He is too good a player for such a low return rate and it would not be in the least surprising that as the wickets slowed he started picking up wins.

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