Twenty20

MI Cape Town v Paarl Royals SAT20 Tips: Paarl need stodgy surface for win

David Miller
Paarl need Miller fit

Ed Hawkins previews the qualifier in the first SAT20 play-off from Port Elizabeth on Tuesday and finds a sticky wicket bet...



MI Cape Town v Pretoria Capitals
Tuesday 4 February, 15:30
TV: live on Sky Sports

MI Cape Town v Paarl Royals team news

MI Cape Town made changes for their last game of the league season, a dead rubber win over Pretoria Capitals. Sediqullah Atal and Connor Esthuizen came in to open the batting and have given the franchise a headache after twin half-centuries at more than 160 strike rate.

Rassie van der Dussen, Ryan Rickleton and Reza Hendricks will be miffed not to return. Colin Ingram could lose his spot to Esthuizen, though. Rashid Khan, Kagiso Rabada and Trent Boult were rested but should play. 

Possible MI Cape Town XI: Van der Dussen, Rickleton, Hendricks, Esthuizen, Brevis, C Bosch, Potgieter, Omarzai, Rashid Khan, Boult, Rabada

Paarl have lost their last two. They are without one half of an opening combo which fired them to the top two. Joe Root has left for India. Mitch Owen, star of the Bash is an etntirely different player to Root and it remains to be seen whether his gung-ho style will pay off on trickier surfaces.

Andile Phehlukwayo is playing as a batter only at number. Presumably if David Miller is fit again after a groin problem it's a straight swap. 

Possible Royals XI: L-d Pretorius, Owen, Hermann, Van Buuren, Miller, Wellalage, Fortuin, Mujeeb, Malinga, Ngidi


MI Cape Town v Paarl Royals pitch report

Cape Town busted a toss trend against Pretoria in their final game. Cape Town will hope for a similarly flat wicket that they piled on 201 against Pretoria. But it will be forlorn. A slow, tacky surface would suit Paarl and they will probably get one as that's what Sunrisers have been preparing. A slow wicket would warrant a par line sell in the mid 160s with MICT batting first. 


MI Cape Town v Paarl Royals match prediction

Cape Town are hot favourites for the win to go straight to the final and avoid a second qualifier. They are no better than 1.538/15. Should they really be as short?

Well, on net run rate there was a whopping gap with Cape Town way out in front. There was one win apiece, however, on the head-to-head. Royals' win came at Paarl on that slow surface.On another tacky surface it doesn't appear that the gulf is justified. Paarl are mean with the ball and expert at restricting strokemakers, which MICT are choc-full of. Paarl are value at 2.466/4.


MI Cape Town v Pretoria Capitals player bets

David Miller remains without a win on top bat. It would be a surprise in terms of win rates if he didn't notch before the season is out. We have taken bigger than 9/25.50 this season, however, and with fitness concerns we might see how he goes.

George Linde's striking has been impressive for MICT and the 11/112.00 is not a mug shout.

The 4/61.67 that MICT have the highest opening partnership is skinny but their excellent attack is up against a pair which give them more than a chance of an early breakthrough. Boult specialises in taking a wicket in his first over.


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