Major League Cricket Tips Matches 4 & 5: Freedom can make it two from two

• Unicorns magic batting first

• Toss bias key in Dallas

• Unicorns may have edge

• Chasing key in Morrisville

San Francisco Unicorns v LA Knight Riders
Monday 8 July, 01:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

San Francisco Unicorns v LA Knight Riders team news

There is no Pat Cummins for Unicorns. The Aussie is set to join for the return match against LA on July 13. As cover, Wiann Mulder has signed. He could go straight into the XI to add batting depth or they could deploy Matt Henry.

Possible XI: Fraser-McGurk, Wade, Short, Inglis, White, Anderson, Mulder, Tajinder, Plunkett, Rauf, Le Roux

Knight Riders beat Texas in their opener to already improve on last term when they finished bottom. They probably need to get Daid Miller and Andre Russell involved earlier with the bat, though. Spencer Johnson's left-arm bullets are key.

Probable XI: Roy, Narine, Chand, Shakib, Kumar, Miller, Russell, Davis, Dry, Johnson, Ali Khan

San Francisco Unicorns v LA Knight Riders pitch report

Eight out of 13 sides have won batting first at Grand Prairie. More than 170 was busted five times. The wicket didn't look as conducive for runs as LA posted 162 against Texas. Over time we do expect it to get tougher to bat on. Shorting par lines in the late 160s is fair. Any reduction in overs with rain around voids the bet.

San Francisco Unicorns v LA Knight Riders match prediction

Unicorns look set to go off as outsiders for this one with early odds moves suggesting they could be as big as 2.305/4. That would be classed as an overreaction to LA's opening win.

There are two factors which reduce the supposed gulf between these teams. The weather and the toss bias. We could get a reduced-overs contest which should bring Unicorns further into the game. And if the flip goes their way and they bat first they are clear value.

San Francisco Unicorns v LA Knight Riders match prediction

Andre Russell is a strong option for top bat and bowler for LA at 10/111.00 and 5/16.00 respectively. It is a bit of an issue that he's batting too low so it could be that we can get that price doubled in-play. With the ball he is continuously underrated because of his potential to bowl at the death.

Washington Freedom v Texas Super Kings
Monday 8 July, 20:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Washington Freedom v Texas Super Kings team news

Freedom got their campaign off to a strong start by beating the holders, MI NY, thanks to a rain intervention. They were also grateful the Morrisville toss bias went their way. Steve Smith won the game for them with an early-late onslaught. We expect him to have a strong tournament.

Probable XI: Head, Smith, Gous, Maxwell, Pienaar, Mukhtar, Jansen, Dill, Akeal, Ferguson, Netravalkar

Super Kings look to have an issue scoring quick runs with the probable top order. A failure for Faf Du Plessis in game one sparks memories of a horrendous 2023 campaign for him. They also look to have one of the weaker domestic player groups.

Probable XI: Conway, du Plessis, Hardie, Tromp, Stoinis, Kumar, Savage, Coetzee, Mohsin, Naveen, Zia-ul-Haq

Washington Freedom v Texas Super Kings pitch report

Seven of the eight matches at Morrisville in MLC have been won by the chaser. More than 170 was busted four times so the track should hold up well. Smith's 46 from 28 suggested it was still pretty flat in game one. Playing overs on a par line in the late 160s or early 170s would be an option but only if Unicorns bat first. They're set up for runs better.

Washington Freedom v Texas Super Kings match prediction

There is no reason to go against the toss bias for this contest. The match odds market looks unlikely to split the pair in a choice affair so the flip will make the difference.

Not that we expect the market to be wise just yet. We suspect Freedom are the superior outfit here because of the difference USA star man Saurabh Netravalkar makes. His three wickets earned him man of the match against New York. Freedom look a solid bet in the chase.

Washington Freedom v Texas Super Kings player bets

Andries Gous has a winner him at tasty prices of 11/26.50 for top Freedom bat. Head and Smith are 11/43.75 the pair. We will keep an eye on Akeal Hossein at odds of 25/126.00 for later on in the tournament when pitches are trickier. Netravalkar is a bizarre 4/15.00 for top Freedom bowler. He won in their opener over NY (and picked up the match gong). He should bowl at the death for cheap wickets and has excellent economy in case of a dead heat. Runs conceded is the tie breaker.

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