England v West Indies Third T20 Tips: Take a gamble on 75/1 top-bat bet

• England 2-0 up in dead rubber

• West Indies need help in bowler conditions

• Big runs in Southampton under lights unlikely

• Sixes short the standout option at 10/111.91

• Motie worth an interest for top-bat win

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England v West Indies
Tuesday 10 June, 18.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

England v West Indies Third T20 team news

England are 2-0 up with a game to spare so they have the opportunity to test bench strength. Matt Potts and Rehan Ahmed should come into contention.

Potts may replace Brydon Carse who was expensive in Bristol while for Ahmed it is surely time to actually get game time. England are not learning anything new about Adil Rashid at this stage. Ahmed has been in squads for two years but has found the chance to build on his ten games limited. 

Luke Wood's strong show in game two should mean he keeps his spot. Saqib Mahmood may also come in.

Possible England XI: Smith, Duckett, Buttler, Brook, Bethell, Jacks, Dawson, Rehan, L Wood, Potts, Mahmood

West Indies are likely to make changes as they look to restore pride in what is becoming a hugely disappointing white-ball tour. They are on the verge of a whitewash in the T20s to go with the shellacking in ODI.

Azlarri joseph should be the first name to axe after another expensive show. His figures for the series now read three for 96 off eight. Matthew Forde, also a useful batter, is an option.

Akeal Hosein came straight into the XI after visa problems were sorted with Andre Russell making way. Evin Lewis may get the chop with the bat for vice-captain Brandon King.

Possible WI XI:  Charles, King, Hope, Rutherford, Powell, Chase, Motie, Shepherd, Holder, Akeal, Forde

England v West Indies Third T20 pitch report

This is a night game in Southampton and there is no evidence of a toss bias under lights over hefty study samples. Likewise there's limited evidence of big runscoring domestically. The runs per overs in the last three years is 8.44. A par line for the Windies may be set in the low 170s. That mark has come unders in seven from 15 games unaffected by weather. In five from the eight internationals 170s has come under.

A wet start to the day and subsequent overcast, chilly forecast does not exactly lend the idea to batting heaven, either. For that reason Sportsbook's under 18.5 sixes sticks out. In all T20 (and Blast, too) that has been busted just once. The three-year records are one overs in 29. The 10/111.91 therefore stands out as the bet of the game. It's the sort of line we were seeing for flat wickets in the IPL just finished. 

England v West Indies Third T20 match prediction

England are 1.4740/85 with West indies 3.1085/40. Some more creep in the Windies price would be welcome considering they've not really laid a glove on England yet. Let's look for 3.309/4

Elements of their performances have caught the eye, though. The squeeze from 12 overs on in Durham and the late assault at Bristol show they are a team who can perform well in flashes.

Consistency is key, particularly in terms of aggression with the bat. Instead of getting at England batting first in Bristol from the off they were becalmed and only put the hammer down in the last four with Jason Holder particularly brutal. The short boundaries meant they were well short of par.

A more bowler-friendly surface may prove to be a leveller here although we recognise the prospect of them getting rolled is a real one. If one subscribes to the view that England will dominate again then Sportsbook's 6/17.00 that they win, hit most sixes and fours and have the highest opening partnership may be attractive. 

England v West Indies Third T20 player bets

Rovman Powell couldn't get the win for us with the top-bat at his mercy. We were left ruing a superb Wood catch just as our man was about to go within two strikes of a 17/29.50 winner. He has been cut to 15/28.50 and although he is overdue on win rate it is hard not to feel that his chance has gone.

Instead we'll have a big-priced gamble on Gudakesh Motie who is overpriced at 75/176.00. Motie has batted as high at Nos 6 and 7 in the last year. There is no guarantee that he even gets to the crease but we're also aware that 30-odd could win it. He has already shown in the ODI series that he knows exactly what he's doing and on pure ability he should be shorter

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