England v Pakistan Fourth T20 Tips: Pakistan still value to cause upset

• Pakistan retain value

• Forecast poor again

• Salt and Rizwan bets

• Read about Ed's Betfair Exchange strategy below

England v Pakistan
Thursday 30 May, 18:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

England v Pakistan Fourth T20 team news

Jos Buttler was expected to miss game three to be present at the birth of his child so he has to rank as a major doubt for this one as England's prep for the World Cup have been upset. Washouts in two of the three matches have meant that Mark Wood has been unable to test out his troublesome left knee. But at least Jofra Archer has been protected from breakdown.

Wood will probably play instead of Archer while Moeen Ali is expected to lead the side in Buttler's absence. Buttler's spot could go to Ben Duckett. But another option is moving up Sam Curran to No 3 in a pinch-hitting role to break up the right handers.

Possible XI: Salt, Jacks, S Curran, Bairstow, Brook, Moeen, Livingstone, Jordan, Rashid, Wood, Topley

Pakistan may take the opportunity to test fringe players or tinker with their balance. The latter may be more important as they need to find a more reliable sixth bowling option than Iftikhar, who they rarely use.

Agha Salman, a batter who can bowl, is a strong option. Or they could add a specialist in the form of pacer Abbas Afridi or leggie Abrar Ahmed. Given the conundrum they may regret releasing Hasan Ali early.

In terms of bench strength, Usman Khan could improve this side and we would rather he be given a shot in place of Fakhar Zaman.

Possible XI: Ayub, Rizwan, Babar, Usman, Shadab, Azam Khan, Imad, Iftikhar/Agha/Abbas, Afridi, Rauf, Amir

England v Pakistan Fourth T20 pitch report

If they can get onto the field for a full game we expect runs. More than 200 has been busted four times in the last seven innings at The Oval while in the last outing both Essex and Surrey posted 190. WIll the rain spoil it? It looks grim again. For the first two hours of prep and scheduled play from 17.00 there is at least an 75% chance of rain. This dips to 41% by 20.00 but if it doesn't let up it is hard be confident. The 20-overs par line will void bets if if there is any reduction in overs but no completed match is looking chunky at 5.104/1. Playing overs at 188.5 is fine because we get our money back if we lose even an over.

England v Pakistan Fourth T20 match prediction

England are 1.625/8 and Pakistan 2.588/5. That latter price has been steadily cut over the series as the market recognises the importance of reduced overs.

We have said consistently that Pakistan are live runners in a thrash and bash because, as is evident from the differing formats that as soon as you limit the contest time there is more time for the unexpected.

Pakistan have flaws with their batting and they also have an awful record in the chase. But The Oval has been good for the batting side, notably when Middlesex got up going after 252 last year.

We will keep faith that they can cause an upset, then, regardless of the toss. It will be in more than hope than expectation they can get the win but they are still a little too big given conditions.

England v Pakistan Fourth T20 Exchange strategy

A five-over match is the minimum required. So despite the weather forecast, there is confidence in the market that a match will be completed.

While it is perhaps not the most fun part of these pages to to do our best Michael Fish impressions, we do have to recognise a market move when we see one coming.

And it would be very surprising if the 5.104/1 about no match being completed doesn't collapse at some stage. The money will come as soon as the TV pictures emerge of a soppy Kensington outfield. There may even be an overreaction after the Cardiff washout. We just need the forecast to be accurate.

England v Pakistan Fourth T20 player bets

Phil Salt and Mohammad Rizwan retain win-rate value for top England bat and top Pakistan bat respectively. Salt wins at a rate of 26% and gets a quote of 7/24.50 while Rizwan's extraordinary record stands at 44% so 12/53.40 is a play. If that isn't strong enough reasoning we also have on our side that, as openers, they should get more opportunity if overs are lost.

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