The loser almost certainly misses the play-offs ut the odds are too sweet on Vipers in Dubai on Friday says Ed Hawkins
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Beware chase bias in Dubai
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Both teams depleted
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Dubai Capitals v Desert Vipers
Friday 8 February, 14.30
TV: Live on Zee
Dubai Capitals v Dersert Vipers team news
Capitals have lost David Warner and Rovman Powell to the T20 series between Australia and West indies. They don't leave a hole as neither impressed.
Ben Dunk may get the opening gig in Warner's absence while Dasun Shanaka has slotted into the middle-order. Roelof van der Merwe may be used.
Possible XI: Dunk, Holden, Billings, Holden, Raza, Shanaka, Kuggelijn, van der Merwe, Stone, Akif, Haider
Vipers have been boosted by Dan Lawrence being made available. The batter is in England's Test squad but he's been allowed to have a hit before the third Test. Sherfane Rutherford has also left for Australia. Shaheen Afridi has left to prepare for the PSL.Wanindu Hasaranga has left for a series versus Afghanistan.
Possible XI: Mustafa, Hales, Munro, Lawrence, Hose, Azam, Naseer, Wood, Amir, Pathirana
Dubai Capitals v Dersert Vipers pitch report
Eight out of ten matches in Dubai have been won by the chaser. More than 165 has been busted four times in that sequence. it could be that the pitch is slowing up, perhaps negating the toss bias a touch but the history is not on the side of the team batting first. It wouldn't be wise to expect big runs.
Dubai Capitals v Dersert Vipers match odds
Vipers are 1.705/7 with Capitals 2.3611/8. That's a big old gulf but for what reason? These are two poor sides with a toss bias for the chaser not to be sniffed at.
Both teams have to win to stand a chance of the play-offs. With three wins each and their net run rates almost identical, this looks a choice affair. Capitals can flip the odds in a chase.
Dubai Capitals v Dersert Vipers player bets
Alex Hales has been boosted to 16/54.20 for top Vipers bat with Sportsbook. That's a chunky price but it has to be said that he's far from reliale these days. it's almost impossible to predict what he'll produce. if you're okay with the fact that he could hit one straight up in the air in the first over, then it's probbly on the toppy side
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