Mumbai Emirates v Dubai Capitals
Thursday 9 February, 14:00
TV: Live on BT Sports
How to play
Emirates are hot favourites at 1.695/7 to set up a semi-final against Gulf Giants. Is that a fair price? One suspects not.
Dubai beat them twice in the group stage as their batting group took a liking to their attack. They rattled 222 in the first meeting and then - in Emirates' last match - chased 164 with ease.
It's a curious match-up as on ladder form Emirates are superior. By analysing their average run rates with bat and ball they have plus 1.3 on their rivals which is pretty chunky.
The Sharjah pitch is tricky to call. In five games we have had three scores under the 160 bracket. However, MIE whacked 241 against Vipers there and the Giants made 181 against Dubai.
If Mumbai bat first, the wisest strategy may be to back their superiority to show up over that first dig wth a bet on 170 or 180 or more at decent numbers.
With the bat Muhammad Waseem has been the standout UAE player and he was largely responsible for that monster effort on this ground for Emirates. He is 7/2 to be their top bat. For Capitals, Sikandar Raza has been batting at No 4 so should be shorter than 15/2.
Joburg Super Kings v Sunrisers Eastern Cape
Thursday 9 February, 15:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports
How to play
Joburg are 1.834/5 favourites to book their spot in the final against Pretoria Capitals. There is little to choose between the teams on the batting and bowling data.
Sunrirsers have a batting run rate of 8 against Jobrug's 7.4. But Joburg are the tighter - only just with the ball with 7.5 playing 7.6.
However, the suspicion remains that Sunrisers are flattering to deiceve. EIther side of a three-game streak, with two wins coming against bottom club Cape Town, they have struggled.
They were also well-beaten twice by Joburg, who have won four in a row. Faf Du Plessis has enjoyed a upturn in fortunes with the bat and he cracked the Sunrisers attack to all parts.
The top order is strong. Du Plessis, Reeza Hendricks, Matthew Wade, Leus de Plooy and Donovan Ferreira are a tremendous line-up.
The run rate stats do not point to a big score at Centurion on first-innings. But it is flat. Three times in five more than 200 has been busted. If playing high on runs, Joburg batting first is the way to go.
There is also a hefty toss bias for the chaser at the Centurion. There's a chance, then, that even money may be available if Sunrisers do okay with the bat.
Du Plessis is 5/2 for top Joburg bat with Sportsbook. Aiden Markram is a reliable wager at a boosted 5/1 while Marco jansen at 30/1 catches the eye.