Australia v Pakistan Third T20 Tips: Take a risk on chasing Pakistan

Australia v Pakistan
Monday 18 November 08:00
TV: live on TNT Sports

Australia v Pakistan Second T20 team news

A reserve Australia team will reckon they are the bees-knees with an unassailable 2-0 win. But it has hardly been convincing stuff from the hosts. They got lucky with the weather in game one meaning it suited their more belligerent style and then their batting collapsed again against Pakistan's pace in Sydney. That they managed to defend 147 was down to Spencer Johnson's five wickets.

With this a dead rubber the Aussies may make changes. Sean Abbott could come in for one of Nathan Ellis or Xavier Bartlett while Cooper Connolly could get a game instead of Marcus Stoinis or Tim David. They're not really learning anything about those two at this stage.

Probable Australia XI: Short, Fraser-McGurk, Inglis, Maxwell, Hardie, Stoinis, Connolly, Abbott, Ellis, Johnson, Zampa

For the first time on tour Pakistan picked a specialist spinner and Sifiyan Muqeem, a left-arm wrist-spinner who had played only 16 T20s, looked the business. His 2 for 21 perfectly complemented Haris Rauf''s four and Abbas Afridi's three.

That Pakistan failed to get over the line is a black mark, though, on an otherwise strong tour. They really should be level. It didn't help that they were a batter light with Abbas at No 7. Not using Arafat Minhas or Jahandad Khan at all is starting to feel bizarre.

Four pacers does seem like overkill and dropping Naseem for one of those two all-rounders would make sense. Alternatively they could find room for the extra specialist in Omair Yousuf.

Possible Pakistan XI: Rizwan, Babar,Frahan, Usman, Salman, Irfan, Minhas, Abbas, Afridi, Rauf, Muqeem

Australia v Pakistan Third T20 pitch report

Batting second in night games at Hobart is an advantage with 25 from 44 won by the chaser in all T20. That's a split of 57%. That's an all-time stat, though, and in the last 15 it stands at eight wins for the chaser. In terms of runs, the RPO for the five-year study period is 8.46. But more than 165 has been busted eight in the last 12.

Australia made 213 against West Indies who replied with 202 in February. This could be a chance for the batters to hit through the line. Both teams to score 160 is 5/61.84 and that has won five times in 12. It might be a more reliale bet to get on the Aussies to bust an early 170s 20-over line. No rain is forecast.

Australia v Pakistan Third T20 match prediction

Pakistan are 3.052/1 to avoid a 3-0 whitewash. They have traditionally flaky in this series, returning to type after brilliance in the ODI. Might they rediscover some form in Hobart?

Well, they can only be backed to do so if they have that chase bias (admittedly smaller in recent years) on their side. They do need help from conditions it would seem.

Australia may also take their eye off the ball slightly. The series is won and the although no players are involved, the country has moved on to thinking about the big one versus India.

Australia v Pakistan Third T20 player bets

We wait for a Babar Azam top-bat win. He came into this series with a 39% hit rate and he has fired two blanks. He hasn't looked great, either. He is still winning at 36%, a three per cent swing in our favour at 2/13.00 but it is hard not to be more tempted by a bet for him just to get some runs. Sportsbook have boosted him to 23/103.30 for a 50. Over 31.5 performance points is another option at 4/51.80.

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