Australia v Pakistan Second T20 tips: SCG could suit Pakistan defenders

Australia v Pakistan
Saturday 16 November 08:00
TV: live on TNT Sports

Australia v Pakistan Second T20 team news

Australia have a 1-0 lead after the seven-over thrash in Brisbane. It suited Australia's strength, or rather exposing Pakistan's weakness, of more brute force. We're yet to be convinced over a full game this is anything but a reserve team.

They are likely to be unchanged but the batting order will be different. Josh Inglis, for example, at No 3 instead of Glenn Maxwell and Aaron Hardie higher than Tim David.

The bowling isn't too shabby. Nathan Ellis and Xavier Bartlett closed out the game with three wickets each.

Probable Australia XI: Short, Fraser-McGurk, Inglis, Maxwell, Hardie, Stoinis, David, Bartlett, Ellis, Johnson, Zampa

Pakistan picked an XI which was ideal for a seven-over game in terms of balance. They had four pace bowlers and part-timer Salman Agha as back up.

They would have been disappointed, then, to first be smashed for 94 and then to flop with the bat. At 24 for six in the fourth over the game was up. Given the need for fast scoring it was a surprise that Arafat Minhas and Jahandad Khan, their batters with the best strike rates, were not involved.

Minhas surely has to play at the SCG as a specialist spin bowler and to give this attack some variation.

Possible Pakistan XI: Farhan, Rizwan, Babar, Usman, Salman, Irfan, Minhas, Abbas, Afridi, Rauf, Naseem

Australia v Pakistan Second T20 pitch report

There have been 27 night matches at the SCG in the last five years. Seventeen of them have been won by the team batting first. That's a hefty 63%. We don't expect a major runfest, either with the RPO for that study period at 7.8. In those 27 matches, more than 165 batting first has been busted ten times. With a big chunk of those in the Bash, though, we do need to bear in mind the possibility of worn pitches taking a toll. If we filter international matches six first-innings in ten have busted 165 or more. A gloomy and wet forecast suggests bowlers will be happy. Rain shouldn't cost overs so a gamble on a high par line, particularly on Australia, is an option.

Australia v Pakistan Second T20 match prediction

Pakistan are marginally more reliable batting first while Australia are weaker in the chase. It should mean that we take the SCG night bias for the team defending seriously.

The visitors have drifted from 3.1511/5 in light of their opening-match defeat. The market has quickly forgotten how the Pakistan pacers dominated Australia in the ODI series.

There's no evidence this Australia scratch team is a 1.444/9 chance, particularly if the flip goes against them. It's a simple bet on Pakistan batting first, hoping that seam and swing late on gets them over the line.

Australia v Pakistan Second T20 player bets

No change from game one after overs reductions voided the tops. We again hit the win rates for top Pakistan bat and bowler. Babar Azam at 5/23.50 and Haris Rauf at 3/14.00 fit the bill. Both should be favourites for top bat and bowler respectively because none of their team-mates win as regularly as them in the last two years. Babar has been having his own private contest with Rizwan. Between them they have 15 wins in 20-odd games. Babar's win rate is 39% (23 matches) compared to Rizwan's 28%. Rauf cops at a rate of 43%, almost twice as good as market jolly Afridi.

There's an huge mistake on Sportsbook to take one wicket+ market with Marcus Stoinis priced at 500/1501.00. We can't believe this price lasts but it may not be cut even close to something close to resembling his ability or record of 45 wickets in 72 matches. Likewise Glenn Maxwell, Salman Agha at the same price. it's 0.25 points on each of them but at more likely in double figures, most likely 10s if you can get on. It's possible that it's a win if more than one wicket is taken but rules aren't clear. There are more realistic ricks on Stoinis to score ten or more at 10/111.91. Stoinis has 'won' on that market at 57% since the start of 2021.

We're also keen on Minhas and Jahandad to each score 20 runs at 11/26.50. It feels like an each-way top bat bet and both can strike it meaning they won't be required to bat for long. Money back if non-runners.

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