Betfair Official Blog

The Contrarian: Why the Patriots won't win the Superbowl

Click here to view market

Chickendinner once again plays devil's advocate as he considers the case against the NFL's dominant team

With three Superbowl victories in the last six years, the New England Patriots are beginning to resemble the American football equivalent of Manchester United - big, brash, great going forward and irritatingly consistent at picking up trophies. Superbowl XLII is now just two months away, and the team known as 'The Pats' have emerged as overwhelming favourites. They have already qualified for the playoffs with an immaculate record of twelve straight wins so far and could become the first team to win every game of the regular season since the Miami Dolphins in 1972.

However, despite their fine form, Superbowl triumph for the New Englanders may not be quite as straightforward as it seems...

1. Regular season form doesn't necessarily translate to the Superbowl

The Pats are one of only two teams to have already qualified for the playoffs (the other being the Dallas Cowboys) and they boast a 100% record with twelve wins from twelve matches, making them the only unbeaten team in either conference. However, only once in the last 10 seasons has the team with the best regular season record gone on to win the Superbowl.

2. A strong offence might not be a blessing

The Patriots currently boast the best offensive record in the NFL with 469 points from their 12 games to date, but of the last 10 Superbowl winners, only three have gone into the playoffs with the best attacking statistics in the country. Since 1998, three teams have qualified for the playoffs with both the best overall season record (i.e. percentage of matches won) and the best offensive record, and none of them won the Superbowl.

3. Defence is the best form of attack

A good defensive record stands you in better stead for a tilt at the Superbowl. 43% of the teams that have won it since 2000 have had the best defensive record over the season. With 209 points conceded so far, the Pats have only the fifth best defence in the NFL.

4. History is against them

Were the Patriots to clinch this season's Superbowl, it would be their fourth success in seven years. The only team to have achieved such a feat before is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who wrapped up their fourth Superbowl in six years back in 1980.

5. Beware the Cowboys

As impressive as The Pats' current form is, it's almost mirrored by that of the Dallas Cowboys, who've won 11 of their games to date and lost just once. They, too, have already qualified for the playoffs, and the last time the Superbowl took place in Phoenix, Arizona - which is the venue for this year's showdown - the Cowboys won it.

6. Don't back your quarterback

In Tom Brady the Patriots currently own the top-ranked quarterback in the NFL, with a quarterback rating of 123.4. But of the last 20 Superbowl winners, only four have featured the season's top quarterback. And in that same period, only the St Louis Rams (1999) have won it with both the best offensive record and the best quarterback.

• US Sports
• NFL