NFL Week Five Betting: It's all about the M-word

NFL / Andy Richmond / 03 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

...and that's momentum, says Andy Richmond, in his betting preview of this week's Sky-televised games from the NFL.

I spoke about how unpredictable the NFL is in my last column and Week Four didn't disappoint with the Redskins' upset win at the prematurely no. 1 ranked Cowboys the biggest of all.

But look deeper - and if the Giants were last year's surprise feel-good story - it's the Buffalo Bills who are providing the uplifting storylines this year.

Three teams remain unbeaten so far this season - we feature two of them in our Week Five NFL preview.


BUFFALO BILLS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
It's been four years since the Bills had a winning season but 2008 sees them off to their best start in 16 years. The caveat is their 'easy' schedule - their four opponents so far have a combined record of 4-11 and all of those teams were dealing with a key injury or coaching crisis at the time. So, whilst I'm not going to suggest that the glory days of the early 90s are about to return to the Bills (that's if losing four Superbowls in four years counts as glory days), they are on a roll at the moment and gathering momentum.

This season has been one of comebacks for the Bills, 18 fourth-quarter points last week in the 31-14 victory over the Rams was their third consecutive last quarter comeback and that appears to have done wonders for their confidence. So don't give up hope if they get behind in this game, they have a never say die attitude - just in case you are playing in-running.

Conversely, the Cardinals are reeling from a 10-day road trip to the East Coast where Brett Favre shredded their secondary in a 56-35 defeat on Sunday - and, despite QB Kurt Warner throwing for 467 yards, three interceptions, three fumbles and five sacks were very worrying numbers. The Bills' improving defensive unit have only allowed 15.8 points per game this year.

The Bills' luck with opponents' injuries continues - the Cardinals are without their standout WR, Anquan Boldin, who is suffering after a helmet-to-helmet hit from Jets' safety Eric Smith.

With QB Trent Edwards, the Bills will be able to move the ball effectively on offence and the Cardinals secondary is going to have another tough week if they don't find a way to handle Bills WR Lee Evans. Remember this is a Cardinals defence that is missing three key components this week.

The Bills have won four straight against the Cardinals, averaging 32.8 points - 5-0 is within reach and possibly so are those Bills glory days again.

RECOMMENDATION: Back Buffalo to score more than 21.5 match points at [1.98] and Buffalo to win at [2.14].


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ NY GIANTS
This game is a tale of wide receivers. One is missing, the Giants' Plexico Burress (suspended) and two returning from injury to bolster the Seahawk receiving corps - Bobby Engram and Deion Branch.

The Giants have plenty of other offensive ammunition both receiving and rushing, backed up by a defence which, despite retirements and injuries, is proving as tough as in previous seasons as they bid to protect their record as the only unbeaten team in the NFC.

Both teams are coming off their bye week and the Giants are often a little shaky after a rest, 1-3 under coach Tom Coughlin. That can be balanced against the struggle that the Seahawks have had on their East Coast trips, losing five of their last six there.

NY are by far the more settled of these two teams. Despite Burress' absence they have a balanced and functional offence backed up by a defence well versed in pressuring the opposition QB. The Giants are in arguably the toughest division in the NFL and need to make games like this on the schedule count.

RECOMMENDATION: Split stakes - Back NY Giants winning margin 1-6 points at [5.5] and 7-12 points at [6.0].


PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

The Steelers may be 3-1, but those victories are now starting to come at a heavy price - the latest two season-ending injuries coming in that dramatic OT win against the Ravens on Monday night.

I often speak about momentum in this column and right now I believe it's the Jags who have the M-word. Recent history favours the Jags, with two recent defeats handed out to the Steelers in their own backyard at Heinz Field. The Steelers have problems on offence will be relying on their defence to get the job done - a category that they rank well in within the NFL. They have struggled to protect QB Ben Roethlisberger this year and the Jags will be looking to add to their 11 sacks of Roethlisberger in their last two meetings.

Some NFL watchers have had their doubts about Jags QB David Garrard but not your columnist. The Steelers have previous with the Jags QB will need to unsettle him to have any chance in this encounter.

The Steelers haven't won a Conference road game outside of the AFC North since Oct 2005, a run that looks set to continue on Sunday.

RECOMMENDATION: Back Jacksonville Jaguars -4.5 points at [1.98].