NFL / Andy Richmond / 27 December 2008 / 1 Comments

We're approaching the business end of the Gridiron season and in a very rare situation, the New England Patriots need to win to ensure they're around in the Post-Season. Andy Richmond talks us through their match plus the other crucial games this weekend.

All of these games have issues at stake this week as we move into the final week of the regular NFL season and say goodbye to 20 teams and move forward with just the 12 for post season.

Some games are head-to-heads for a final place and some have some very convoluted outcomes which would see the winners qualify for the post season if results go in their favour elsewhere.

The focus within our three games this week is in the AFC, a conference that is by far the more complicated of the two - if you want to gain the full picture then take a look at my article unravelling the whole AFC conundrum.

New England (10-5) at Buffalo (7-8)

The Patriots duly annihilated the Cardinals last week but still need help to get into the post season. The first objective is to take care of the Bills; that done they then have to hope for help - an unfamiliar position for the Patriots.

The snow arrived at Foxboro last week and once again QB Matt Cassell thrived in adverse weather conditions, and we should still remember that the Patriots have the number four ranked offence in the NFL - and a nicely balanced one at that. Cassell has done a tremendous job standing in for the injured Tom Brady, especially over the past few games where he has passed for 14 touchdowns in the last six games - seven of those going to Randy Moss.

We mentioned adverse weather conditions and the Ralph Wilson Stadium, home to the Bills is predicted to see snow flurries, temperatures around zero and a strong wind - that will suit the Patriots who for all of the receiving skills of Randy Moss, have the ground game to trouble the Bills - power being provided by Sammy Morris and LaMont Jordan and speed by Kevin Faulk; the Bills will struggle to hold those three.

Offensively, the Bills have struggled to find any consistency and RB Fred Jackson may once again be expected to pick up much of the ground game, after Marshawn Lynch went down with a shoulder injury last week, the Patriots will be looking to shut down the Bills on the ground to force them into their more erratic passing game which focuses on WR Lee Evans.
New England have won ten straight against Buffalo. If they make it eleven, they still have a shot at the post season.

RECOMMENDATION: Tough handicap to overcome but a small play on the Patriots -6.5 at [2.16] is a worth a shot

Miami (10-5) at NY Jets (9-6)

You could call this the game of karma as former Jets QB Chad Pennington "comes home" to the Meadowlands with a shot at putting the 1-15 (last year) Dolphins into the post season with a divisional title - how sweet that would be for Pennington, tossed aside when Brett Favre decided that retirement was not for him after all.

The equation is a simple one then for the Dolphins - win and you are in, and they certainly have momentum at the moment winning their last four and eight of the last nine. The Jets on the other hand are stumbling in the stretch and confidence and belief appears to have deserted them.

Miami, with Pennington's accurate passing game have enough variety in the rest of their offensive game plan to trouble the Jets - especially as the Jets much-vaunted run defence has crumbled in the past few weeks.

Confidence is the key to this game and it would appear that the Dolphins have a much greater quantity of that at the moment than the Jets do.

RECOMMENDATION: Head could rule the heart here BUT let's back "Flipper" to complete an amazing turnaround; Miami +3.5 at [2.0] is the call

Denver (7-8) at San Diego (8-7)

This clash is the de facto AFC West Championship game and we got here basically because Denver have failed to close out the division and San Diego have rebounded from a 4-8 start to win their last three games.

Pass, pass and more pass will be the bottom line of this game - Denver have had their running game decimated beyond belief by injuries and San Diego have seen a reduced end product from RB LaDainian Tomlinson. So come Sunday night it will down to the arms of the young QBs - Cutler for the Broncos and Rivers for the Chargers - Cutler goes against the worst pass defence in the AFC, but they must know what to expect this time and the Broncos don't really have the ground game to keep the Broncos honest.

Rivers is having a monster season and the Broncos will remember what he did to them back in Week two and he'll have a great chance to do just the same against the lacklustre Broncos defence.

It will all come down to execution, nerve, experience and most importantly momentum... and that favours the Chargers in this match up.

RECOMMENDATION: Two poor defences, two good offences can only add up to one thing- points . Sit back and enjoy as the points pile up and back over 50.5 match points at [1.95].