NFL / Andy Richmond / 05 December 2008 / Leave a comment

Andy Richmond previews three key fixtures with the play-off picture developing - Washington's visit to Baltimore, New Orelans' last-chance fixture against Atlanta, and of course Miami v Buffalo.

The wonderful world of the NFL continued this week - the big story being Giants WR Plaxico Burress managing to shoot himself this week in a New York nightclub - it hit him in the thigh and the story continues to roll. With the weeks of the regular season now running out, there are a few teams this week who with a Plaxico-like slip could shoot their playoff hope into oblivion.

First up a team that have not featured that much on SKY this year but will be well worth a watch on Sunday, the Baltimore Ravens.

Washington Redskins at Baltimore Ravens
Rookie coach, rookie QB - a familiar formula in the NFL this year. Atlanta thought they had the patent on this combination but Baltimore might just be a replica in the making. Five win and 11 defeats last year after 13-3 the year before, some radical surgery was required, so out went long-standing Coach Brian Billick and in came rookie John Harbaugh, who made an immediate big call to go with another rookie at QB Joe Flacco - success ensued.

If there is a criticism of the Ravens it's that they have feasted on the NFL's lesser teams and not cut the mustard against the tougher sides. A three-game stretch against tougher sides is coming up, we are about to find out if the rookie formula can bring success back to Baltimore.

The Ravens have won their last two straight games by a combined score of 70-10 while the Redskins have lost three of four, the latest a real thrashing by the Plaxico-less NY Giants. The one saving grace for the Redskins is that they have been excellent on the road this year winning four from five and that same effort will be needed on Sunday to stop a Ravens team with real momentum.

Both teams have top-10 ranked defences. The Ravens unit, led by the rejuvenated veterans Ray Lewis and Ed Reed, have proved particularly strong against both run and pass, conceding 190 points all year. Washington have scored 17 points or less in five of the last seven games and could be in for a long afternoon. They will really struggle if their offence's focal point, RB Clinton Portis, is hampered on Sunday by injury - he is the motor which drives this offence and when he doesn't show up this offence disappears.

I really like what the Ravens are doing on offence and Flacco should have plenty of time on Sunday as the Redskins "D", as good as it is, doesn't have much pass rushing capability, Flacco will need to be careful though as the Skins feature a canny secondary.

The next three weeks are tough for the Ravens they have all the components to handle the situation and might just make this the year of the rookie.

Recommendation: Back the Ravens to rack up the points again - Baltimore (-5.5) at [2.0] match odds.


Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
While the Ravens/Redskins game could be a defensive battle - we have a game here which features two top-10 offences and in Drew Brees a quarterback who was born to pass.

The Saints stand at 6-6 so this is the final shot for them on Sunday and defeat would set the seal on a very disappointing season for them. Conversely, the Falcons have overachieved with the rookie formula working for them too - QB Matt Ryan being particularly impressive with his decision-making on passing downs and the power running game led by Michael Turner - if he rushes for 96+ yards then Atlanta wins.

The Falcons have a much better balanced offence but Brees and his receiving corps have been on the money all season and Coach Payton is determined to live or die by the pass. Brees, whilst he stacks up the passing yards does throw picks, and the Saints don't have a complete enough team to make up for those mistakes.

Recommendation: Tough call this and only a token selection - the Falcons may provide enough scope at 2.5 to have some trading options during the game.


Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
The NFL moves to Canada this week with Buffalo playing in Toronto for the first time and they are going to see a Bills side playing poorly - they have lost five of their last six, the low point a 10-3 home loss to the 49ers last week.

Miami are the comeback team of the year, 1-15 last year to 7-5 this, and have a real shot at the post-season party. The other break that the Dolphins have got this week is that they don't have to play outside in the Buffalo cold - this game is indoors at the Rogers Centre.

That changes the balance of this contest for me and should suit the Wildcat offence that the Dolphins love - and which has been a fun and fruitful addition to the league this year.

Miami are on a roll, winning five of their last six, and we must give a final plaudit to offensive co-ordinator Dan Henning for his mixed and eclectic play calling - the Dolphins were awful last year but have provided a breath of fresh air this year in showing how to turn around a franchise.

Recommendation: "Flipper" is on a roll and the inside warmth with suit a Dolphins team with the X factor this year - Back the Comeback Kings (Miami) at [2.04] match odds.