NFL Thanksgiving Day Betting Special: Cardinals the only possible upset on a day of mismatches

NFL / Andy Richmond / 26 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

Andy Richmond previews this midweek treat for NFL fans - a three-game Thursday night series of matches. Happy Thanksgiving!

Christmas - or Thanksgiving - really does come early for NFL fans this week as Thursday night sees an extra helping of three back-to-back NFL games. These matches could have been a little more competitive, with only the Cardinals' journey to troubled Philadelphia looking like it will produce a competitive game.

Tennessee at Detroit

If the Titans hadn't fallen at home to the Jets last week these teams would have had mirror images of each other's playing record 11-0, playing 0-11. I doubt that the Titans could have handpicked their next opponent after their first loss any better than the NFL scheduler, and despite a short week, they can travel to the Motor City hopeful of getting back on the winning trail very quickly.

The Titans have built their dominance on their running game and although they have struggled in the past three weeks, only generating one rushing TD, it's hard to see how the Lions can stop them. Detroit have allowed 166.7 rushing yards per game and have the league's worst run defence. Two teams with run-orientated offences have had big days against them - Week 1 saw the Falcons rack up 318 yards and in Week 11, the Panthers rolled in with 264 yards rushing. If the Lions can't stop the run then the Titans' offence will be adding another chapter to those horror stories.

There is one possible trading angle that readers might like to consider in this game - the Lions do have a habit of managing to jump out into leads, even against good teams - they led Tampa Bay last week 17-0 before collapsing in the second half to a 38-20 defeat and that's not the first time that's happened. RB Kevin Smith and WR Calvin Johnson are on their day decent weapons. With the Titans coming off a defeat and a short week, anything can happen. Taking that into account it may be worth taking a look at laying the Titans early at around [1.17] and hoping for that scenario to unfold again, leaving you with trading options.

Ultimately though, I expect the Lions to end up being the stuffing in the Titans turkey in the first of the day's Thanksgiving offerings.

Recommendation: Back Tennessee (-11.5) at 2.1 and over 44.5 match points at [2.06].


Seattle at Dallas

Talking of mirror images - this game reads very much like the Titans-Lions match up, with one side very much more balanced and confident than the other - well with a team of egos like the Cowboys it would be hard not to be confident within their ranks.

The Seahawks are struggling and wounded and come to Dallas having already lost to three NFC East opponents by a combined score of 90-30. The Cowboys looked to be back to their early season form last week when they beat the 49ers 35-22 and the big "egos" of Tony Romo and Terrell Owens really did perform. They still have a lot do in this division to make post-season but they do appear to be overcoming a flat spot.

Seattle's regressive pass defence - ranked 31st in the NFL - could be in for a tough day against Romo and Owens (213 yards receiving last week) and the Seahawks may not have enough offensive firepower to keep the Cowboys off the field. QB Matt Hasselbeck has thrown five interceptions in the last two games and wwill be nervously watching out for Dallas linebacker DeMarcus Ware, a regular QB sack machine this season.

Recommendation: Big handicap to overcome but back a resurgent and confident Dallas (-12.5) at [2.06].

Arizona at Philadelphia

That great American institution Bruce Springsteen sang a lyric "Sometimes I can't tell my courage from my desperation" and that aptly sums up the Donovan McNabb situation in Philly at the moment - amazingly benched by Coach Reid on Sunday, this much maligned QB seems to be carrying the blame for all the Eagles ills.

In reality this Eagles team, since their last Superbowl appearance, has underachieved - going 29-29-1 since that last turn on the biggest stage of all. On Thursday they face one of the surprises of the season in the Cardinals. Beaten by the Giants last time out - no disgrace in that - the Cards have a phenomenal passing game led by QB Kurt Warner and his favourite targets WRs Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, a pair of receivers McNabb would die for - 300 yard games are the norm for Warner and the boys.

The Eagles though haven't quit on defence and still have a very respectable package to keep Arizona in check.

As exciting as the Arizona offence is, their defence should not be forgotten. They thrive on creating turnovers and doing the basics well.

It will be fascinating to see McNabb's reaction to Coach Reid's harsh Sunday decision but the Cards bring an exciting package to town in this one and can all but seal the NFC West title.

Recommendation: Bold call, back the Arizona Cardinals at a too big [2.38] (match odds) or take some insurance and back them (+3.5) at [1.8].