NFL Post-Season Betting: Old man Warner ready to make play-off history

NFL / Neil Monnery / 13 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

No need to pray, Karl - Neil's backed you to win the Superbowl!

"Kurt Warner threw more touchdowns than incomplete passes on Sunday night - that has only happened 16 times since 1996 and never in the post-season. He did all this without Anquan Bolden - his #2 WR target and a legit Pro Bowl talent. Back against Warner's Cardinals at your peril."

Neil Monnery looks at the odds as the NFL play-offs continue. Indianapolis are favourites to win the Superbowl, but the Colts are not our man's selection

We are down to the final eight as The Road to the Superbowl leaves the side streets and takes to the freeway.

A disappointing wildcard weekend erupted late on Sunday with the highest scoring fixture in NFL play-off history to save the TV fan from a four game letdown. The Arizona Cardinals took down the red hot Green Bay Packers behind a vintage performance from Kurt Warner. The question now is, who would really bet against the Cardinals from here on in?

Looking at the exchanges - where the Cards are Superbowl outsiders at [21.0] - the answer is quite a lot of you. They are [3.45] to go to New Orleans and beat the Saints at the weekend and that is a crazy price, crazily good.

The Packers boasted the second best defence in the NFL last year and Warner hung a 51 spot on them - 51! The Saints won't be able to stop them and the Cards will win in The Big Easy.

The other great match-up is also in the NFC where Dallas go to Minnesota. And how about them Cowboys? A month ago we were all writing off America's Team as choke artists but not any more. Tony Romo is efficient and spraying the ball all over the field. In the backfield, a legit three-headed monster of Jones, Barber and Choice gives opposing D-Line fits. On top of that, they play this thing called defence to a high standard. They look great.

But the Cowboys come up against the team whose bandwagon I've been on since the early days of the season - the Minnesota Vikings. Brett Favre has been great all year long and Adrian Peterson is the best RB in the NFL not named Chris Johnson. They also play stingy defence. This game has all the hallmarks of a classic. Early in the week, the exchange shows the Vikings as close favourites [1.81] but this really is a toss-up game.

Over in the AFC the Chargers will beat the Jets so I'm not going to waste many words on that game but Baltimore's visit to Indianapolis has me thinking 'upset'. The Ravens match-up very well with the Colts, they are tough up front and should've beaten them in the regular season. I know the Colts are the Colts and they have some guy called Peyton Manning under center but there is something in my mind that says this game will be tight. Real tight. If this game isn't still up in the air at the two-minute warning in the second half I'll be stunned. I'm going with the Colts for one reason and one reason only - Peyton Manning - but this is not a confident pick.

All year long I've said the NFC is the deeper conference and if you are asking me today who I'd back to win the Superbowl, I'd take the Cardinals [21.0], Vikings [8.8] or Cowboys [8.4]. Indianapolis are rightful favourites as they have the easier route to the big dance on paper, but you've got to like a battle-hardened team when it comes to the Superbowl.

But if forced to make one selection, I would jump off the Vikings bandwagon, bid au revoir to the Cowboys and stick with the underdog Cardinals thanks to old man Warner.

Kurt Warner's post-season Quarterback Rating (104.4) is the second highest in NFL history behind Bart Starr. Warner threw more touchdowns than incomplete passes on Sunday night - that has only happened 16 times since 1996 and never in the postseason. He did all this without Anquan Bolden - his #2 WR target and a legit Pro Bowl talent. Back against Warner's Cardinals at your peril.

Cardinals for it all [21.0] there we go I've typed it and I can't change my mind now.

My tips for this weekends games are below:

Cardinals over the Saints @ [3.45]
Cowboys over the Vikings @ [2.2]
Chargers over the Jets @ [1.33]
Colts over the Ravens @ [1.42]