NFL Betting, Wild Card Weekend: All or nothing as season strides into play-offs

NFL / Andy Richmond / 04 January 2008 / Leave a Comment

Betfair's NFL betting expert Andy Richmond takes a look at which teams will progress to the next round of the play-offs and which will be sent home

Welcome to a wild weekend of NFL football, lose now and your season is over - yes this is Wild Card Weekend and four games spread over two days will see four go on and four go home.

M is an important letter this week as it stands for MOMENTUM and debate has been raging all week about which teams have it and which don't. Much will also be written about home advantage, supposedly all important in post season though I'm not so sure. Last year Baltimore and San Diego were dumped in home upsets, 2005 saw six teams crash out despite playing at home and four home town teams went by the wayside in both 2004 and 2003.

So against that backdrop how do the four matchups look this week?

The Skins have overcome some serious obstacles to get this far not least the tragic death of Sean Taylor and first choice QB Jason Campbell. In fact it's arguable that the loss of Campbell has been the catalyst of the Skins success as journeyman QB Todd Collins has proved a steadying influence - his numbers don't have a stellar look about them but you can't fault the job he has done.

There is no doubt that the Seahawks have the far more balanced offence - a one two punch running game with Shaun Alexander providing the pop and Maurice Morris offering more in the way of open field shiftiness. Couple this with a solid receiving core which, although lacking a go-to guy, could spread out the Washington secondary lacking in quality in depth. The Redskins deserve respect for getting this far, but beating the Seahawks in Seattle is always a tall order - expect the very noisy home crowd to play its part and this is one is going to be a Seahawks victory for me in what could be a close encounter.

The second game on Saturday features the only home underdog in the shape of Pittsburgh. The Jags have won their last three straight against the Steelers and it was they who controlled the last game. Both teams suffered losses last week when already qualified but it was the Steelers loss to the Ravens which disturbed me more, especially the 180 yards that they gave up on the ground to the Ravens. Expect more of the same this week as Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew provide a very potent dual running threat for the Jags.

The Steelers have injury worries and have already lost premier RB Willie Parker for the season - this will be a rough tough football game and one in which I think the Jags will demonstrate the strength in depth in the AFC and continue their road trip next week.

The first of the two games on Sunday opens up with what I think is the most intriguing match, the Giants at the Bucs. The Giants gained a lot of credit last week for taking the Patriots all the way in their record breaking game, even though they had nothing at stake and risked injuries to key players. I think I've written about the Giants more than any other team this year and we all know that they can blow hot and cold but they are basically a solid football team with a good running game and some dangerous wideouts. Their top ranked pass rush could win them this game and Bucs QB Jeff Garcia will need to be back to his best to avoid the myriad of blitzes that the Giants can come with.

If Giants QB Eli Manning can maintain the level of performance that he showed last week and not turn the ball over - a major failing of his this year - then this Giants team which went 7-1 away from the Meadowlands in the regular season can upset the odds here on the road. Despite their frailty and capacity for mistakes at vital moments, the Giants have the core of a very good football team and did win more games in the regular season than the Bucs. I'll take the Giants for an "upset" straight up but I wouldn't put you off taking the Giants with the points either, with the 2 ½ point handicap offering some insurance.

Finally the final game sees the Titans vs. Chargers II - this has the makings of a good old revenge/grudge game fuelled by the regular season game in December which featured an overtime Chargers win, multiple injuries, late hits, loads of NFL fines and Titans head coach Jeff Fisher being accused of putting a "bounty" on the head of Shawne Merriman.

All that aside the Chargers enter this game as healthy as they have been all season with the game's X Factor player in RB LaDainian Tomlinson, who has gained a second straight rushing title. The Titans have injury problems and if two of their major players QB Vince Young and DT Albert Haynesworth don't make the gig then their chances of victory will be severely limited.

The Chargers have the ability to blow the Titans away and I can see that happening here - they have run into form at the right time and come here on the back of six straight victories, Sunday should make it seven.

So there we are 4 games over two days and the number of potential Superbowl winners diminishing by four. Lets hope that the Seahawks, Jags, Giants and Chargers are not amongst those four.