Betfair Official Blog

NFL betting, Week 13: Manning may not have it all his own way against the Jags

Click here to view market

Andy Richmond focuses on the Jags-Colts clash which could have a huge bearing on the AFC South outcome...

We usually kick straight on with looking forward in my weekly NFL pieces but I can't let the Cowboys-Packers game pass without a couple of retrospective comments first. And yes I did sit up all night watching the game and am writing this at 7am after a Cowboys victory which sends them to 11-1 and virtually seals their position as the number one team in the NFC.

Firstly, the Cowboys are the real deal and an improving side, one described by Terrell Owens as "work in progress". But forget TO, Romo, Whitten et al because this side will progress due to its outstanding offensive line. Unsung heroes all, they gave Romo time to throw and Barber space to run the ball - hats off to those men in the trenches, the most important part of this Cowboys team, they need to stay healthy and fit.

Secondly, don't write the Packers off. This young football team played their part too and I fully expect to see these two teams facing off again in the NFC Championship game in January. The Packers went away from their normal game plan and tried to attack the Cowboys secondary recklessly and I expect to see a change of tactics when they meet again soon.

Looking at the rest of Week 13, there are some great match ups on offer and none more so than the Jags-Colts fixture which kicks off a SKY triple header.

This game has lots at stake for both sides, not only in overall Conference terms but also the race for the AFC South where the Jaguars trail the Colts by one game. Jacksonville have been helped by the recent return of QB David Garrard, who continues to play mistake-free football while Manning and the Colts continue to succeed despite losing key starters to injuries. Garrard's return gives the Jags balance they want. Their offence is largely devoid of home run hitters but against a dangerous and aggressive Colts "D" a more methodical 'get the job done' approach is favourable. The dual running threat of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew need to be accounted for on every down.

Colts QB Peyton Manning needs very little introduction but shorn of his favourite weapon, wide receiver Marin Harrison in recent weeks he seems strangely out of sync. The expected return of left tackle Tony Ugoh is important to Manning's protection and expect him to spread the Jags out with multiple receiver sets to attack their relatively thin secondary.

The key to this game will be the Jags playing mistake-free football and using their attritional running game to keep the Colts off the field. I'll play the game in-running as I want to see how the two sides set up. Forced to make a call before the game I'd take the Jags with 7.5 point start at around [1.82] and have a small play to see the points go under the 45.5 marker at around the same price. Ball control for the Jags will be key, if they establish the run this could be one close battle for the AFC South.

Pressures of space prevent us from dwelling on the Browns-Cardinals game which provides the meat in the SKY sandwich, suffice to say that this is a real tricky one with the resurgent Browns (7-4) taking on a Jekyll and Hyde Cardinals (5-6). It's fair to say that both sides have better and more potent offences than defences and points could be flying in here. As the side with more momentum I'll take the Browns to seal victory which would put divisional pressure on the Steelers who feature in our final match up.

Heinz Field turned into a mud bath last Monday when the Steelers defeated the still winless Dolphins, who should have been suited by the aquatic conditions, 3-0. Driving rain saturated the newly laid playing surface making conditions amongst the worst ever seen and the game suffered as a result - more rain is forecast in Pittsburgh for Sunday and it looks like conditions will be difficult again.

The Steelers have always been known for their trademark grinding running game and I expect more of the same here especially as the Bengals "D" needs to step up especially against the run. Pittsburgh has won four of its last five overall but has struggled on offence recently, with a previously prolific unit putting up its two lowest yardage totals of the year the last two weeks against teams that have won a combined two games.

With the Bengals starting to run the ball better via Rudi Johnson there is an added balance to an offence which we know can move the ball through the air with QB Carson Palmer capable of carving open any defence although he faces the NFL's top ranked pass defence here.

This is a tough call without knowledge of how the field will play and I would advise checking the conditions before playing - if conditions are reasonable then my starting point would be a lay of the Steelers at around 1.35 which should provide enough price elasticity for trading and not much downside if the Bengals are not on a going day. Field conditions will also play a part in points totals and rushing and receiving yardages so remember to factor the conditions into your betting on this game.

Games are starting to mean more and more - and poise, patience, momentum and that little bit of luck are all going to be needed as we head towards the play-offs and that's just with our punting.

• US Sports
• NFL