NFL Week Six Betting: Cool rookies take flight for Falcons

NFL / Alan Dudman / 10 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

This week Alan Dudman plays back-up to Andy Richmond, and comes off the bench to offer his insights in to a couple of the live Sky games this weekend... a bit like Matt Ryan stepping in for Brett Favre.

Chicago at Atlanta

Although the Sky triple header starts off with Oakland at New Orleans this Sunday,
I will be paying closer attention to the interactive game between the Bears and the Falcons. This looked a mouth-watering clash for me - a phrase you would have barely heard during the off-season when talking about this week six contest.

It's a match-up that has thrown together two teams who have emerged as big surprises
in the NFL. Both with 3-2 records, both with superstar rookies looking to strut their stuff
in the Georgia Dome and both with a reputation for points.

Atlanta were a huge price for the NFL crown pre-season (matched at over 500), but have played nothing like rank outsiders (that accolade goes to Detroit). Mike Smith's men will be riding high after their week 5 success at Lambeau - their first road win of the
regular season.

Rookie QB Matt Ryan looked cool, calm and collected last week throwing for 194 yards against Green Bay, and his already high confidence would have received a further boost.

But it is the running game of Atlanta that has been top notch. Michael Turner, who looks like a man possessed after a few seasons back-up to LT in San Diego, is averaging 5.3 yards per game. And with 543 yards all season - he's the man of the side that lies second in the league's rushing.

Here is the poser for punters: The Bears still look weak defending a decent passing game, but are excellent in rush defense and have given up few yards this season - an achievement that ranks them fourth best in the league. Will Atlanta pass or rush?

They may look to throw to exploit the visitors weakness, and I'll be backing Matt Ryan to throw over 165.5 yards.

Let us take a quick look at Chicago, a team with their two-game winning streak from the lacklustre NFC North. Lovie Smith's side have had a fair bit of success
in the air this season, but boy can they run.

Leading rookie Matt Forte exploded on to the scene during weeks one, two and three, posting some big figures, including a 100+ game in the season opener. The
decision to allow him only 34 carries in the next two remains baffling.

Forte can run, Forte can catch - the Tulane boy has fast become QB Kyle Orton's favourite receiver - catching 22 times for over 170 yards. And talking of Orton, the four-year veteran had a career day last weekend when throwing for 334 yards to earn a rating of 121.4.

Chicago's battering of Detroit last weekend was described as their best of the season, although I think the Hertfordshire Harriers would stand a decent chance against the men from the motor city of late.

In summary, it's a game that could throw up plenty of points, and I think the hosts can continue their upward curve and snatch victory.

Recommendation:

Back Matt Ryan over 165.5 yards
Back Atlanta at [2.33]
Back over 43.5 points

New York Giants at Cleveland

Time for the coffee to keep us up for the 1:30am game on Tuesday, and hopefully that coffee will be as strong as New York this season. The undefeated World Champs are getting better and better and were awesome last week in dismantling Seattle 44-6.

Tom Coughlin's side head to the Browns with a 4-0 record, and a pretty decent one in Cleveland too - they haven't lost there since 1973.

The Giants defence is looking as good as ever, and lie second best in the NFL conceding on average just 12.2 points per game. Cleveland - fresh from a confidence booster against the troubled Bengals are going to struggle big-time in moving the ball here. Their offense looks feeble and has posted some paltry figures, and it would be a massive shock if the Giants didn't dominate.

Eli looked unruffled last week, but it's the running game where the Giants are top drawer. Brandon Jacobs is a real favourite of mine, ably supported by Derrick Ward, and I think NY are going to be unstoppable here in putting up
some substantial figures.

Recommendation:

Back Brandon Jacobs (NY) over 95.5 yards
Back NY Giants -7.5pts [1.88]
Back NY Giants -13.5pts [2.00]
Back total NY Giants points over +25.5