NFL / Andy Richmond / 17 January 2009 / Leave a comment

Seconds out, it's round three for the Steelers and Ravens on Sunday - this time it's not just a win that's on the line but a place in the Superbowl XLIII. Andy Richmond picks the best bets.

Baltimore (11-5) at Pittsburgh (12-4)

These two teams don't like each other and there is plenty of bad blood floating around from previous meetings this season, although the weather in Pittsburgh, late on Sunday night will be doing its best to cool down any tempers that may flare - there's a 40 percent chance of snow and the game-time temperature will be in the low-20s with light winds.

Pittsburgh lead this year's series 2-0 against their divisional rivals and if this season's preceding contests set the bench mark then we are in for a close one. Pittsburgh gained a 23-20 win on September 29th, the Ravens blowing a 10 point lead in the game before finally failing in OT and the re-match in Baltimore saw the Steelers again snatch the spoils with a controversial touchdown late in the game to give them a 13-9 win and a divisional title.

Both teams are built on defence - no offense is gaining fewer yards per game in these playoffs than Baltimore's. Rookie QB Joe Flacco has completed less than half of his passes. The Ravens rushed for a paltry 50 yards on 30 carries vs. Tennessee.

So how has Baltimore got this far?. Well, they play great defence and don't turn the ball over and despite Flacco's numbers not looking great he has the poise and ability of a veteran QB when offensive co-ordinator Cam Cameron does take the wraps of him - he is a very good game manager and does have the arm strength to provide the deep threat that is needed to unsettle the Steelers this time.

You could argue that Baltimore are running on empty, this is their 17th consecutive game, three of the last four have been on the road, but they have won seven of the last eight - the only loss coming against, yes you've guessed it - the Steelers.

So you would expect the Steelers to be confident of continuing their winning streak. Their offense has been more expansive than the Ravens' this year but that "strength" could also prove to be a weakness. The Ravens defence are adept at providing turnovers and they are the lifeblood of any play-off team - eight is the current total. If the Ravens can pressure Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger that will increase the chances of a turnover and they have sacked him 23 times in their last 5 meetings - an impressive ratio, the Steelers must protect their QB on Sunday and run a balanced offense to keep the Ravens "D" honest.

The Ravens defence is susceptible to outside speed and the Steelers' Willie Parker is the straight ahead variety of running back who has never run for more than 63 yards against the Ravens.

Expect to see the Ravens stick with their running game, although I wish they would use Flacco's obvious talents and rocket arm a little more with the Steelers mixing up their offence whilst always giving the Ravens a chance to "steal" the football.

This will be tight, hard- nosed football, don't expect the teams to deviate from what got them this far and one mistake could prove crucial in the battle for field position and points.

Baltimore may be running on empty but I can't see them getting blown away here, they are too tough for that. Remember, Pittsburgh have lost the last three times they have hosted the AFC Championship game.

Recommendation: Third time lucky for the Ravens despite the injury doubts - back them +6.5 at 1.95, another close one ensues.